Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wind slabs formed over the past several days of sustained light to moderate winds are the primary concern today.  Look for these slabs to be relatively shallow, less than a foot in depth and sitting in potentially unusual areas (e.g. mid slope, well below and away from ridgelines).  Recent winds have created shallow slabs that were sensitive to human triggers over the last two days.  In the higher elevations much of the snow that was available for transport has been either scoured or turned into these stiff slabs.  The chance of new wind slabs forming today are on the low end because of this lack of snow available for transport.  The wind slabs we observed being triggered this weekend pulled out in steeper terrain, generally above 35 degrees and on average closer to 40 degrees.  A rise in temperatures today will increase the sensitivity of these slabs.  Be on the lookout today for these pockets of lingering slabs, especially above cliffbands, gullies and trees.  While these avalanches are generally low in volume, consequences go up when one of these pockets sweeps you into or over a terrain trap.

The deep slab problem continues to linger.  This problem has gone from being a widespread issue to one that exists primarily above treeline.  Warm temps and light rain last week melted the snow surface and penetrated to the lower layers of the snowpack.  These melted layers have now had time to go into a hard freeze and are much stronger.  Above ~2,000′ this process has not occurred to the same extent.  Therefore, it is worth remembering that the weak snow that formed in the beginning of the season still lurks below.  The likelihood of triggering a deep slab today is low.  The consequences of triggering an avalanche in weak layers buried 3-8 feet deep are still potentially high.