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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, January 23rd, 2013 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, January 24th, 2013 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Unseasonably warm temperatures, with small amounts of rain and snow, are elevating the danger slightly with a wet concern in lower elevations.   MODERATE avalanche danger can be found above treeline for deep slab problems combined with wind slabs at the ridges.   Below treeline is also MODERATE for wet avalanche concerns associated with the above freezing temperatures.  

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Wed, January 23rd, 2013
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wet Loose
    Wet Loose
Wet Loose
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
More info at Avalanche.org

Temperatures have dropped a little since Monday, but remain above freezing to around 2000 feet.  Some minor surface stability issues have been noted with the warming temperatures, but nothing has caused great concern.  Riding conditions changed quickly with the warmup.  If it was soft carvy powder, it probably isn’t anymore until you get above the zone that thawed at the surface…

Wind Slab-

Higher up, above 2000-2500 feet, the effects of the warmup will be less noticeable.  In this zone the recent precipitation came as snow and wind has been blowing.  Watch for wind loading and associated wind slabs.  Continued light snowfall today combined with moderate wind will contribute to this problem. 

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Deep Persistent Slabs
    Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

Our old friend that won’t go away is mostly out of sight, but not yet out of mind.  As time goes on and the snowpack gets deeper this problem will likely remain dormant unless one or two conditions are met.  A person could still cause a deep slab avalanche if he or she finds the unlucky trigger point.  This will be an area where the snow depth is thinner, possibly with exposed rocks nearby.

The other factor that will bring us concern would be a large precipitation event.  Our current weak storm system is probably not enough to bring the deep slab problem back to life.  We will talk about it in stronger terms again during a more powerful storm event.

Weather
Wed, January 23rd, 2013

Above the freezing line we’ve been getting a few inches of snow each day for the past few days.   Below freezing line the snowpack is losing depth.

We can expect more of the same weather today with a rain/snow level near 1000 feet and continued light snow.   1-3 inches of snow is possible today with another 2-5 inches tonight.   Wind up high will be up to 35mph from the east to southeast.   The overall trend through the rest of the week looks colder with continued light snow.  

Observations
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Riding Areas
Updated Wed, June 01st, 2022

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Placer River
Closed
Closed as of April 25th due to insufficient snow coverage.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed as of April 1st per Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed as of June 1st.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed as of April 6th due to insufficient snow coverage.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.