A shallow persistent slab is causing the greatest problems in the snowpack. Looking through the observations photo gallery, a clear pattern emerges among the recent natural and human triggered avalanches over the last week. We aren’t finding those avalanches all the way at the ridge tops, but rather on wind loaded mid slopes below the ridges. This pattern directly helps us make some travel decisions by showing us the specific terrain to avoid this weekend.
An observation from yesterday in Moose Pass showed clear red flags of collapsing (whumpfing). This underscores the problem of a stronger slab overlying the persistent weak layers, and tells us that avalanches are still possible to trigger on steeper slopes that hold the right combination of strong snow over weak snow.
Overall, we can assume that the likelihood of finding avalanches is decreasing slowly over time since the last snowfall. The size potential may be decreasing as well. Due to the persistence of the weak layers (they don’t get stronger easily or quickly) and the cold temperatures we’ve had recently, the trend is nearly stabilized. This means that current problems aren’t getting better or worse, but are likely to stay at the same danger until we get a change in the weather. Distribution is widespread on all aspects, but most common on upper mid slopes with wind loading.
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