A shallow persistent slab is causing the greatest problems in the snowpack. Looking through the observations photo gallery, a clear pattern emerges among the recent natural and human triggered avalanches over the last week. We aren’t finding those avalanches all the way at the ridge tops, but rather on wind loaded mid slopes below the ridges. This pattern directly helps us make some travel decisions by showing us the specific terrain to avoid this weekend.
An observation from yesterday in Moose Pass showed clear red flags of collapsing (whumpfing). This underscores the problem of a stronger slab overlying the persistent weak layers, and tells us that avalanches are still possible to trigger on steeper slopes that hold the right combination of strong snow over weak snow.
Overall, we can assume that the likelihood of finding avalanches is decreasing slowly over time since the last snowfall. The size potential may be decreasing as well. Due to the persistence of the weak layers (they don’t get stronger easily or quickly) and the cold temperatures we’ve had recently, the trend is nearly stabilized. This means that current problems aren’t getting better or worse, but are likely to stay at the same danger until we get a change in the weather. Distribution is widespread on all aspects, but most common on upper mid slopes with wind loading.
It’s been a cold week, but on the positive note we gain 11 seconds of daylight today! A chance of snowshowers is possible for the eastern Turnagain Arm, but don’t get your hopes up for much snow. A weakening high pressure across Alaska is still keeping the moisture stream to the south, giving snow to everybody in the lower 48 and Canada…
Expect cold temperatures to continue today. A strong temperature inversion can be found on the Kenai, with some low spots reading in the -20s. Ridge tops are balmy by comparison in the low teens. Wind is a little breezy up high, but probably not strong enough to move our old snow or contribute to avalanche danger.
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).
Wendy will issue the next advisory Sunday morning, December 23rd.
|01/19/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Cornbiscuit||Schauer/ Johnston-Bloom Forecaster|
|01/19/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Sunburst and Tincan||CNFAIC Staff|
|01/19/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Seattle Ridge||CNFAIC Staff|
|01/19/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan 2900′ SW aspect below Hippy Bowl.||Kris Marshall|
|01/18/21||Turnagain||Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs.||A Schauer Forecaster|
|01/16/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Trees||A Schauer Forecaster|
|01/15/21||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst||Schauer/ Wunnicke Forecaster|
|01/13/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||Johnston-Bloom / Moderow Forecaster|
|01/13/21||Turnagain||Observation: Center Ridge Meadows||Alaska Avalanche School Rec Level 1 Roberts|
|01/12/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Seattle Ridge/Center Ridge||A Schauer Forecaster|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.