Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Tue, December 18th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Expires
Wed, December 19th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

ANNOUNCEMENTS
Join Wild Alpine and the Friends of the CNFAIC for the Girdwood Premier of TGR’s new film “The Dream Factory” – with scenes shot at Alyeska and the surrounding Chugach Mountains. This is a fundraiser for the CNFAIC and takes place at the Sitzmark Bar & Grill – Alyeska Resort. More details HERE.

BOTTOM LINE
A MODERATE danger exists above treeline for today.   Avalanche activity has quieted down in the backcountry.   Despite flurries and increased winds in the forecast, it does not look like this will affect the overall hazard significantly. The potential still remains for triggering avalanches in steep wind loaded terrain.   Below treeline the danger is LOW, where there is not enough of a slab to be of concern and avalanches are unlikely.

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Tue, December 18th, 2012
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
More info at Avalanche.org

While it has been almost a week since new slabs have formed, we are still seeing isolated areas with slabs that are reactive to the weight of a person.  While avalanche activity has been on the decline, the potential remains for human triggered avalanches in steep upper elevation terrain.  Yesterday was the first day with no reported human triggered avalanches in the last week.  Several parties experienced collapsing in areas that had not previously seen traffic.  This is an obvious sign of unstable snow.  Snowpits from yesterday showed us that the potential remains for avalanches, if triggered, could propagate and entrain enough snow to injure or bury someone.  While it’s easy to get complacent with a lack of obvious avalanche activity, remember that there is very weak snow lurking below the surface. 

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

Look for winds to increase in the mountains today.  With a limited amount of snow available for transport coupled with a trace of new snow, the chance exists for the formation of small new wind slabs.  If you are observing wind blowing out of the east right in front of you, expect nearby west facing slopes to be receiving a new load of snow.

Weather
Tue, December 18th, 2012

The clear and cold weather of the last several days will be replaced by clouds, wind and warmer temps today.   A low pressure system moving south into the Gulf will skirt South Central Alaska.   Look for flurries starting midday with accumulations of up to an inch of snow.   Winds shifted overnight and are now blowing out of the east.   Look for ridgetop winds to pick up for part of the day today with gusts in the 30-40 mph range.   Temps will warm into the balmy teens today!

The longer term outlook shows a return to clear and dry conditions.


This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).  

Kevin will issue the next advisory Wednesday morning, December 19th.

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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, June 01st, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Placer River
Closed
It is packrafting and jetboat season!
Skookum Drainage
Closed
The Skookum Valley is closed to snowmachines. This closure occurs annually on April 1 as per the CNF Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed as of June 1. 188 day season, that\'s a wrap!
Twentymile
Closed
It is packrafting and jetboat season!
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closes May 1.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closes May 1.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closes May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season. Will be open for moto use in the 21/22\\\' winter season as per the CNF Forest plan.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closes May 16th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closes May 1.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closes May 1.

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.