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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Wed, February 22nd, 2012 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, February 23rd, 2012 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday, February 22nd at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

BOTTOM LINE

This has been our longest break from snowfall in 2 weeks. The danger rating has dropped to MODERATE, the lowest we’ve seen in February. We have good information today that our storm snow is settling and stabilizing quickly. Uncertainty remains because we have dealt with so much snow over the last 3 weeks, which has kept people from traveling very far during constant stormy weather.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Our latest storm ended more than 24 hours ago. Wind and snowfall has diminished and temperatures dropped last night. The avalanche danger is on a decreasing trend.

I have to admit that I get a bit nervous when the skies clear after 3 weeks of constant snowfall. The question today is – Where is it appropriate to travel? The answer should be – “Start conservatively and work up slowly if conditions allow.” Larger avalanches will be unlikely, but smaller avalanches in steeper terrain are still possible. The longer we wait since the last snowfall, the more stable the mountains will get.

Primary Concern

Wind slabs in steep terrain above treeline. This problem, along with associated consequences, will increase as the slope angle increases. We can expect a buried wind slab near ridge tops and on high elevation rollovers. A fresh layer of soft non-winded snow at the end of the last storm makes it more difficult to identify where the wind deposited the most snow.

Below treeline we can expect good stability and loose snow avalanche concerns. Perhaps one of the more dangerous stability issues can be found on the massive mushroom overhangs found in small cliffy areas. Some of these can build quite large and unstable, breaking off when a rider weights the edge of the overhang.

Partly sunny skies are in the forecast, and even a quick break could start the melting process on South faces. Watch for sun induced sluffs and a melt-freeze crust to form if we get sun exposure this afternoon.

Remember, sunny skies and good quality snow don’t necessarily mean safe conditions. All of us (myself included) need to play according to the mountain’s schedule. This means being patient to wait for stability. If the weather forecast proves true, we may get the green light in the next few days. For today, a defensive approach to steep terrain is warranted. Find some test slopes and ride them one at a time. Avoid areas with terrain traps and high consequences until we get more information pointing towards stability.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

No additional snow has fallen since the last avalanche forecast was issued yesterday. Wind has been light and temperatures held steady, then started to drop last night. Weather in the last 24 hours has been promoting increased stability in the snowpack.

Today we still have a chance of snow, but the forecast only calls for a trace. A West wind should be light and temperatures are expected to stay cold with a subtle rise during the heat of the day. More stable weather is expected for the next several days.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

Wendy will issue the next advisory Thursday morning. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

Wed, February 22nd, 2012
Alpine
Above 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.