Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, January 28th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, January 29th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday, January 28th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

BOTTOM LINE

The avalanche danger is MODERATE in specific wind loaded pockets in steep terrain. We saw one example yesterday of a significant avalanche in a cross loaded South facing gully. Much of the region where most people are skiing, on terrain less than 35 degrees and below tree line, has a LOW avalanche danger.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Despite the cold weather, skiers and riders were out in full force yesterday. Most people were staying away from the big and steep terrain, so we still don’t have a great idea of what might happen in those areas. Our caution level is definitely waning, although one big piece of information from yesterday caught our attention.

For the most part the snow through Turnagain Pass is loose and relatively stable. Loose snow sluffing is common, but the sluff quickly slows down and stops in less steep terrain. Pockets of wind affected areas are common however, with stiffening of the top 4-6 inches. These areas will slab out if the terrain is steep enough, but we only saw one example yesterday where a wind slab produced a big enough avalanche to hurt someone.

That example looked to be up to 2 feet deep on a cross loaded South facing gully. See anCNFAIC Staff picture here. It broke mid slope and came out the bottom with significant force. There was no human trigger for this avalanche, although we are speculating an animal may have caused it. This is a big outlier in what we saw yesterday, but it illustrates the potential if you find a bigger and stiffer wind pillow in steep terrain. Your hackles should go up if you find a transition to significantly stiffer snow in terrain greater than 38 degrees. Route selection and terrain management will prevent problems today. Any bigger and steeper terrain should be approached with a healthy amount of skepticism if wind loading affected it.

There is scattered buried surface hoar in lower elevation drainages (below 1500-2000′). This is more prominent in the Girdwood Valley and northern side of Turnagain Pass and, what seems to be, less so in the southern Turnagain region. Our investigations Thursday on Max’s Mountain found it moderately reactive around 1500′. Collapsing, but no cracking/avalanching has been seen/reported on this layer to date – yet the layer exists and a person could get a surprise on a lower elevation rollover.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

The clear and cold trend continues today. There is a slight inversion this morning with valley temperatures below zero and some ridgetop stations reading slightly above zero. Wind has been minimal since Thursday when the most recent wind slabs formed from gusts into the mid 30s from the East. Today the wind should be slight, and not enough to form more wind slabs.

Our next chance of snow will be Sunday night, with a change to cloudier weather and somewhat warmer temperatures.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

I will issue the next advisory Sunday morning. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

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Sat, January 28th, 2012
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
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Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
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Seward District
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Lost Lake Trail
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Primrose Trail
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Resurrection Pass Trail
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Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
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Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.