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Issued
Wed, January 18th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, January 19th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday, January 18th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

Special Announcement

This Sunday January 22nd, CNFAIC forecasters will be hosting a FREE observer training day for snowmachiners! Please contact Graham at graham@chugachavalanche.org for more details or to sign-up. Space is limited!

BOTTOM LINE

The avalanche danger is LOW with pockets of MODERATE. The core zone through Turnagain pass has lots of consistent information showing good stability with some minor sluffing in steep terrain.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Avalanche stability in the mountains is slowly stabilizing as we continue to have high pressure over Alaska. Weather has been clear and cold with limited wind and no snowfall for the last 5 days. A lack of change in weather conditions usually leads to a safer backcountry.

The primary concern today is focused on steep terrain where loose snow sluffing and small wind slabs can be found. Slopes angled less than 35 degrees will have a very low likelihood of finding any problems. We’ve had a lot of consistent observations from a variety of sources over the last few days showing the same problems or lack thereof in the backcountry.

Surface hoar has been building in some areas over the last few days. The distribution of surface hoar is very important to know before we get our next storm. It’s not a problem now, but can be a very dangerous collapsible weak layer if it gets buried by new snow on a steep slope. All observations regarding the surface hoar locations (elevation, aspect, region, terrain features, etc.) are appreciated.

Check out this video from Europe of a big mountain burial. We do not have conditions today that could lead to a large avalanche like this, but it’s still a good reminder to never let your guard down and stay vigilant when riding the mountains.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

A blocking ridge of high pressure is the dominating weather feature over Alaska right now. The jet stream flow that brought us frequent storms over the last 2 months is now diverting the moisture South to the lower 48 states. Clear and cold weather is expected to continue for the next week. Gap wind in areas like Portage is likely to increase as a pressure gradient sets up over our region. We’ve also had a solid temperature inversion recently with colder temperatures at the valley bottoms and (relatively) warmer temperatures at the ridgetops.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

Wendy will issue the next advisory Thursday morning. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

Wed, January 18th, 2012
Alpine
Above 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.