Share your feedback! Share your feedback!

How’s our new website?
How can we better serve you?

Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

Archives
ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Tue, January 10th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Expires
Wed, January 11th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Graham Predeger
The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Graham Predeger with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Tuesday, January 10th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

BOTTOM LINE

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE this morning and may trend towards HIGH as this most recent storm intensifies throughout the day with increasing precipitation. Human triggered avalanches will be likely with the increased load of new snow forecast and fresh wind slabs.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

If you were out in the backcountry yesterday, it was hard to believe that an intense winter storm was headed our way. Monday’s brief high pressure is giving way to blizzard like conditions throughout the advisory area today. The National Weather Service states “An impressive plume of moisture is associated with this system reaching back to the subtropics.” This satellite image sums it up nicely.

The primary avalanche concern today will be quite obvious. It is arriving in the form of high winds and periods of intense precipitation throughout the day. This will be our first big wind event since December 20th. We have ample snow on the ground available for wind transport, coupled with subtropical moisture streaming into the advisory area. This is a red flag for heightened avalanche activity. Remember, MOST AVALANCHES OCCUR DURING OR WITHIN 24 HOURS OF A STORM. We will be well within that window all day today and most likely tomorrow as well.

A secondary concern that is worth mentioning is the widespread rime crust that was deposited on January 7th/ 8th in the Turnagain Pass region. It is still too early to tell if this fragile crust will act as a weak layer for subsequent slabs to run on or if it will be obliterated by today’s winds. We will be watching closely to see how it reacts to the increased snow and wind loads over the coming days.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Winds began to increase into the moderate range around 8pm last night with approaching high clouds from the southeast. As of this morning winds are already in the 50-60 mph range with gusts approaching 90 mph at the Sunburst weather station. There is a blizzard warning in effect for the Girdwood and Turnagain pass regions until 9pm this evening.

Snowfall in the advisory area is just beginning as of 6am and looks to intensify as the day progresses. There is still some uncertainty as to the amount and timing of the heaviest precipitation, but we can expect favored areas in the eastern Turnagain arm region to receive upwards of 24″ of snow by the time this low passes Wednesday night and into Thursday.

Temperatures are still relatively cool this morning though forecast to rise into the mid 20’s today. At this point, it appears that temps will stay below freezing at 1000′ as this low pressure moves through on an east to southeast flow across the Chugach range.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

Kevin will issue the next advisory Wednesday morning. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

Thanks to our sponsors!
Tue, January 10th, 2012
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Considerable (3)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Considerable (3)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Considerable (3)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Considerable (3)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Considerable (3)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Considerable (3)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
05/06/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Pastoral Peak, north face
04/10/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Wolverine
04/10/20 Turnagain Observation: Eddies lookers right shoulder
04/09/20 Turnagain Observation: Bench Peak
04/04/20 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
04/04/20 Turnagain Observation: Pete’s North
03/26/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan – Proper (SW facing)
03/26/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Seattle Ridge
03/25/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Sunburst Uptrack @ 2000′
03/24/20 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain – Road Observations
Riding Areas
Updated Fri, May 01st, 2020

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Placer River
Closed
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed as of May 1. Thanks for a fun, safe season!
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Primrose Trail
Closed
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Snug Harbor
Closed
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Summit Lake
Closed

Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email

This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.