Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, January 7th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, January 8th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday, January 7th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

ANNOUNCEMENT

20 Mile drainage is open to motorized use! Park at the Portage rail depot and cross the RR tracks at the designated spot ONLY! Please follow bamboo poles from the parking area.

BOTTOM LINE

More snow today with wind will increase the avalanche danger proportionately to the snowfall amount. Watch for areas of MODERATE avalanche danger for soft windslabs. Small and shallow human triggered windslabs are possible today. Significant natural avalanches are unlikely unless today’s snowfall exceeds the prediction.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Thursday’s snowfall brought 6-8 inches to our region and a little bit of wind redistributed that snow somewhat. Yesterday we were finding occasional small windslabs that would crack at your skis, although the depth and force within those slabs was minor. Today a storm predicted to drop an additional 3-6 inches with wind up to 29mph will increase the avalanche possibility.

Looking back into our weather and snowpack history gives us good insight into today’s avalanche likelihood and character. We have a deep and strong snowpack right now, with no buried surface hoar, no reactive facet layers, and no buried crusts above 2800 feet. The small amount of snow Thursday and today is very unlikely to provide enough stress to affect deeper layers in the snowpack. The only real concern today is finding unstable snow within the top storm layer. This makes avalanche prediction much easier.

Today, pay attention to the surface snow and how it varies and reacts to skis, board, or sled. If it transitions from soft and shallow to stiff and deep then you are moving onto a wind slab. Monitor the slab depth, relative strength, and reaction to being trod upon. Shooting cracks indicate a stronger slab above weaker snow, so your criticism of the snow should increase immediately if you see this. Higher elevations, rollovers, and ridge transitions are the most likely areas to find surface instability. Avalanche size potential will be small and lower volume.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

The storm out in the Gulf that is hammering Valdez and Cordova will just graze our region with a little bit of snow and wind today. Snowfall just started this morning and it will continue through the day. 3-6 inches of snow is predicted, with East wind to 29mph and temperatures into the mid 20s.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

Wendy will issue the next advisory Sunday morning. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

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Sat, January 7th, 2012
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.