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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, December 21st, 2011 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, December 22nd, 2011 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday, December 21st at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

BOTTOM LINE

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE for new storm snow, wind slabs, and fresh cornices. Last night’s storm brought significant snow and strong wind through Turnagain arm and the Kenai Peninsula. The snowpack will be adjusting to the new load today.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Since the beginning of the month we have gotten 4 major storms through the region. They have all come in with typical maritime force – warm, wet, and windy. Last night’s storm was no exception. The good news is that these kinds of storms tend to bond and stabilize within a day or two. The bad news is today is still within the heightened avalanche danger of last night’s storm. It will be prudent to manage terrain conservatively today and let the snowpack adjust to the new stress.

The primary concern today will be recent storm snow from last night’s and from Sunday’s storms. Specific areas will be wind loaded into deeper pockets. Cornices will likely be large and unstable. Natural avalanches probably happened overnight, and human triggered avalanches will be possible today.

Test pit results yesterday showed typical new storm snow layering and strength . Today we have additional snow to evaluate.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

The storm last night brought up to a foot of snow to higher elevations in Girdwood and in the southern portions of the Kenai Peninsula. Areas closer to Seward may have gotten the most snowfall out of this storm. Turnagain Pass only shows about 4 inches on the weather station, with Summit showing a little more. Temperatures rose a few degrees during the storm, so the layering will be slightly “upside-down” with heavier snow on top of lighter snow. Wind during the snowfall was up to 60mph at the ridgetops.

Today’s weather should bring sunny breaks with only light to moderate wind.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

Wendy will issue the next advisory Thursday morning. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

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Wed, December 21st, 2011
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Considerable (3)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Considerable (3)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Considerable (3)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Considerable (3)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Considerable (3)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Considerable (3)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
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Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass
Open
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Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
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Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.