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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, December 14th, 2011 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, December 15th, 2011 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday, December 14th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

ANNOUNCEMNTS

There will no advisory issued tomorrow. The next advisory will be issued Friday, December 16th, at 7am.

Don’t miss tonight’s big double premiere and CNFAIC benefit!! Teton Gravity Research’s “The Continuum” along with “One For the Road” will be playing at the Sitzmark Bar & Grill. More details are on our training and calendar page. Come on out!

BOTTOM LINE

The avalanche danger is moderate for new storm snow. Natural avalanches are not likely, but human triggered avalanches are possible in specific terrain. The snowpack is still adjusting to the significant extra weight from the storm over the weekend and more snow is expected today.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Sunny breaks in the weather yesterday gave us a good look around the mountains to see the aftermath of last weekend’s storm. Most of the natural avalanches happened during the peak of storm intensity, then got filled in and hidden by more snow. There isn’t much obvious evidence of avalanching through Turnagain Pass, but you will find some if you look hard enough. Nearly all the information yesterday pointed towards a stabilizing trend in the snowpack. The one anomaly was a reported glide avalanche on Raggedtop in Girdwood yesterday.

Snow pit data showed variable depth of the storm snow depending on aspect related to windloading. In some areas the storm pillowed 5-6 feet deep, CNFAIC Staff places it got scoured free of the ridges. Most slopes got a solid 2 feet of heavier snow, and we found decent bonding to the older snow underneath. Check out our pit data from yesterday HERE.

We got no reports of human triggered avalanches yesterday. Snowmachiners and skiers were doing some pretty good slope testing through Turnagain Pass with no problems that we know of.

All this information points to a stabilizing snowpack. Yesterday (48 hours after the heavy and intense storm) the snow was not reacting to human influence. Today, I expect the deeper stability to be improved further. We do have more snow in the weather forecast, so treat the additional load as an issue of its own.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

The big storm from the weekend is now 3 days in the past. The Center Ridge weather station has lost 8 inches of snow depth due to settlement since Sunday. Up to 5 inches of snow could fall today, with 6 more tonight. Moderate to strong East wind at the ridgetops could be blowing this new snow and forming some new slabs.

Looking forward into Thursday and beyond, more snow is in the forecast. The incoming storms appear to have only mild intensity, but a little snow each day will eventually accumulate into a lot. Snow, wind, and temperatures in the mid 20s will be the norm for the next few days.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

I will issue the next advisory Friday morning at 7am. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

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Wed, December 14th, 2011
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
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Riding Areas
Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River
Closed
Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass
Open
Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail
Open
Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor
Open
Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake
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Opened Dec 13th.

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.