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Issued
Sat, December 10th, 2011 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, December 11th, 2011 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday, December 10th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

BOTTOM LINE

The avalanche hazard will increase today proportionately to the snow and wind from the storm. The danger level will likely go through a wide spectrum, from generally LOW this morning to CONSIDERABLE tonight as the storm ramps up. The most dangerous conditions likely to be encountered during daylight hours today are MODERATE. Watch the weather and make travel decisions based on the conditions you are seeing.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

There are 2 distinct discussions today – before the storm and after the storm arrives.

1. Before the storm arrives late today the primary concern is isolated windslab at upper elevations. Watch the snow depth and feel the density changes as you travel to track those slabs. Be aware they could break unexpectedly near ridgetops under human weight.

All of our data indicates a decreasing avalanche trend over the last few days. That trend will continue this morning but reverse this afternoon.

2. AnCNFAIC Staff storm is entering the region and intensifying by 6pm. Heavy snow, wind, and increased temperatures are expected, which will raise the avalanche danger. The general pattern is very similar to the storm from a week ago. It looks like it won’t affect people doing day trips today, but could become dangerous quickly in the evening and by tomorrow morning. The National Weather Service is issuing a Blizzard Warning at 6pm tonight for Turnagain Pass North. A Blizzard Warning means that severe winter weather conditions are expected. All travel and outdoor activity is strongly discouraged.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

This week has been a mixed bag of weather. The intense storm last Sunday caused many natural avalanches from Seward to Hatcher Pass. Since then a mid week snowfall covered the breakable rain crust with a pleasant 4-8 inches of dry snow. Tonight, conditions will change again with Blizzard conditions forecasted. A deep Low in the Bering Sea is bringing an intense stream of moisture from lower latitudes North into Alaska. Heavy snow tonight with 7-16 inches is expected. East wind 40-60mph or higher.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

Wendy will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning at 7am. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

Sat, December 10th, 2011
Alpine
Above 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.