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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Wed, November 2nd, 2011 - 7:00AM
Thu, November 3rd, 2011 - 7:00AM
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

This is Wendy Wagner with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday, November 2nd. The following is a quick discussion as snow begins to pile up in the mountains east of Anchorage and areas of the Kenai.

Between Saturday October 29th and Tuesday November 1st around 1-2 feet of low density snow has fallen in the Turnagain Pass area and CNFAIC Staff parts on the Kenai. Low visibility yesterday kept folks, and observations, below treeline. The Good news at Turnagain Pass is minor sluffing within the new snow was the primary concern and stability tests showed good bonding between the new and old snow surface. However, what is happening in CNFAIC Staff areas and above treeline on the steeper slopes is still suspect. Winds will (and likely did) have an easy time forming wind slabs and soft slabs prime for avalanches.

Looking forward into the latter part of the week, watch for easily triggerable soft slabs and wind slabs on and off ridgelines. Winds are forecast to increase and can increase the avalanche potential without new snowfall. There is plenty of snow to slide and shallow snowpacks are just as, if not more, dangerous than deep snowpacks.

Remember the basics; only one person on a slope at a time, don’t forget your beacon, shovel, and probe, travel with a partner and evaluate the snow conditions as you go. Double check all your gear is working properly, such as, get that beacon some new batteries and make sure your probe is not rusted shut. It’s time to get our avalanche eyeballs out!

We are headed into a brief high pressure as anCNFAIC Staff system is forecast to arrive later this week. Any new snow and wind will increase the avalanche danger.

This advisory will continue to be updated irregularly until we have the resources to resume a daily schedule. Check back for updates and keep sending us your observations from the backcountry.

Wed, November 2nd, 2011
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.