Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Good morning backcountry travelers this is Carl Skustad with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Friday, February 26th at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

WEATHER ROUNDUP

We saw snow move through the area yesterday from the west. This track gives the Anchorage bowl a better chance of snow as was the case. The advisory area received 6″ in Girdwood, 5″ at Eddies, 6″ at the Turnagain Pass motorized lot, 7″ at Sunburst, 5″ inches at Johnson Pass TH north, and 5″ at Summit Lake. Temperatures have dropped off again this morning ranging from 25 at sea level to 10 degrees F at 3600 ft. Winds also dropped off after 6pm last night. Current winds are light with moderate gust in the single digits. We did see a period of wind yesterday afternoon with gusts in the 30’s out of the west. This may have been enough to create small isolated wind slabs above tree line. The wind direction has been variable over the last 48 hours as the jet stream fluctuates. Westerly winds were present as the latest system moved across our area.

The radar shows a snow shower moving north over Anchorage this morning, all CNFAIC Staff areas are clear. The satellite shows clouds moving in from the southwest.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Today’s avalanche danger is MODERATE. Natural avalanches unlikely, human-triggered avalanches possible. You may see small solar induced point releases this afternoon if direct sun is present. Cooler temps should keep this chance to a minimum. Human triggered avalanches should be limited to new snow instabilities. Wind slabs of 6 inches to a foot may be possible in the alpine. Areas to find these wind slabs include: steep rollovers, leeward ridges, and side loaded ribs.

We have still found remnants of the old weak layers of concern. Those are the rain crust from January 7th and the buried layer of surface hoar from earlier February. These layers have not been reactive and in many areas got destroyed during last weeks siege. I mention them as a reminder to keep an eye out for them. We would love to hear from you if you see these layers in the snowpack.

Glide cracks and cornices continue to be areas of concern today. Both are total wild cards and are very difficult to predict. We have seen increased failures of both cornices and glide cracks this week. Give them lots of space. Avoid traveling underneath, along the side, above, or anywhere near glide cracks or cornices today.

WEATHER FORECAST (National Weather Service)

WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-

INCLUDING…WHITTIER…SEWARD…GIRDWOOD…MOOSE PASS

500 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2010

.TODAY…CLOUDY ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM THIS MORNING…CNFAIC StaffWISE

SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH.

NORTH AND WEST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH NEAR SEWARD AND WHITTIER WITH

GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR WHITTIER.

.TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 5 TO 20 ABOVE…COLDEST INLAND.

LIGHT WINDS. NORTH AND WEST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH NEAR SEWARD AND

WHITTIER…BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING…THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY

WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 20S.

NORTH TO EAST WIND TO 15 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT…SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH TO EAST

WIND 10 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT EAST WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH

THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

.SUNDAY…RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE 30S. NORTH TO EAST WIND

10 TO 25 MPH EXCEPT EAST 35 TO 50 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY

AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

.SUNDAY NIGHT…RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 28 16 29 / 0 0 40

GIRDWOOD 25 8 28 / 0 0 30

WEATHER STATION SUMMARY for last 24 hours at TURNAGAIN PASS

3800′-Sunburst Wx Station

Current Temp: 10 (12 degrees colder than yesterday)

Winds: light out of the east with moderate gusts in the single digits.

2600′-Seattle Ridge Wx Station

Winds: light out of the east with moderate gusts in the single digits.

1800′-Center Ridge Wx Station

Current Temp: 16 degrees (9 degrees colder than yesterday)

Precip: .4 new water, 5″ new snow, 92″ total snowpack

Thanks for checking today’s avalanche advisory. I’ll post again tomorrow Saturday, February 27th.