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Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Fri, January 2nd, 2009 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sat, January 3rd, 2009 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
The Bottom Line

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Happy New Year backcountry travelers, this is Carl Skustad with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Friday, January 2, 2009 at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for the Turnagain Arm (Turnagain Pass is the core advisory area). Local variations always occur. Note: We issue advisories 5 days a week Wednesday-Sunday.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER ROUND UP

In the last 24 hours…

-The Center Ridge weather station at 1800 feet in Turnagain Pass-

Still no data. Hopefully it will be back up and running early next week thanks to the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Those guys are awesome. They keep most of the SNOTEL weather stations running around Alaska.

-The Grandview weather station at 1100 feet along the railroad tracks-

Recorded 0 inches of water or new snow. Current temp is -8 degrees F (no change from yesterday)

-Sunburst weather station at 3800 feet in Turnagain Pass-

Recorded moderate NW winds in the mid to upper teens. Current temperature is -9 degrees F (11 degrees colder then yesterday)

-Surface Analysis Maps-

There is a weak low pressure system centered in the gulf (1000mb). Cordova may receive snow showers today as a result of this system. AnCNFAIC Staff 978 mb low is creeping this way below the Aleutians. Strong high pressure remains over south central AK for the weekend.

-Radar-

Light snow showers heading a shore near Cordova. The rest looks pretty clear.

-General Weather Observations-

Compared to yesterday…Temperatures dropped again over night. All stations are reporting -4 to -9 deg F. Winds have picked up slightly, predominately out of the NW, 10 to 20 mph.

PRIMARY AVALANCHE CONCERNS

-October Facets on/near the ground

SECONDARY AVALANCHE CONCERNS

-Glide Cracks (see photos)

WATCH OUT SITUATIONS

-Big steep rollovers

-Rocky terrain

-Shallow snow connected to deeper snow (photo gallery)

-If you hear any “whumpfing” or feel any collapsing, then get to safe terrain immediately and call it a day.

AVALANCHE AND SNOWPACK DISCUSSION

Not much change today or the last few for that matter. If you venture into the cold this weekend you will find mostly clear skies and diamond like snow. Our snow surface is full of surface hoar and near surface facets. This surface condition is very important to remember as it will be our next week layer when buried.

Right now, there are still some small slabs out there that are holding some energy, that could create small human-triggered avalanches on steep isolated terrain features.

Terrain management remains the key to safety with our current snowpack. Thin early season snowpacks (like what we have right now) are not ready for the big lines that Alaska is famous for. There should be plenty of opportunities for that kind of terrain in the spring. Take a look at the weather charts in the photo gallery. You will see that we have less precip and less total snow than we have in the past couple years. We all need to keep our human factors in check and stick to planar slopes with clean runouts, and avoid steep or complex terrain. Use extra caution around rocks, gullies, or steep rollovers.

Future concerns:

We have a grab bag of weak layers near the surface that will become a problem when the next big storm comes in….

-The recent clear weather, calm winds and cold temps have created a new batch surface hoar from the highway to the ridgetops in certain areas. Try to take note of where you see these feathery crystals especially on top of those old stiff wind slabs. Let us know where you see this; so, we can pass the word on to everybody else, and have a better idea of where these potentially dangerous areas will be after the next big storm.

-This cold weather has also created a bad temperature gradient in the top 1-2 feet (~40cm) of snow. Snow temperatures taken on Saturday on Sunburst (Thanks Bill) jive with snow temps taken in Main Bowl on Tuesday 12/30/08. Basically, this means that facets are forming in the current surface snow, which can become anCNFAIC Staff bad weak layer in the near future

-There is also a mystery layer of buried surface hoar that formed about 11 days ago that got buried under a couple inches of new snow on 12/23 and 12/25. This layer was most widesread at mid elevations up to 2800 feet, but was also observed on ridgetops up to 3800 feet.

Persistent concerns:

Although the loose sugary facets that formed on the ground in October are showing signs of improved stability, this layer is still a concern for avalanches, especially during and after the next big storm. Every snowpit this season shows that our snowpack consists of a dense slab on top of a weak layer of facets. Most of our stability tests show good stability on that layer of October facets right now; however, snow pits do not tell the whole story, they are only part of the entire avalanche puzzle.

The weak layer of October facets failed during the last big storm (12/8/08) and resulted in large natural avalanches that propagated across very wide areas like Todd’s Run (see photo). This weak layer also failed with human-triggers 5 days after that storm near rocky and complex terrain near steep rollovers. These human-triggered avalanches were small relative to the entire slope and did not propagate very wide. They stayed isolated to specific terrain features, but these were very dangerous for people. I’m not sure, but these facets on the ground might still be an avalanche problem after the next big storm. What do you think?

WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-

INCLUDING…WHITTIER…SEWARD…GIRDWOOD…MOOSE PASS

500 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

.TODAY…PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

HIGHS AROUND ZERO EXCEPT AROUND 15 ABOVE NEAR SEWARD AND WHITTIER.

NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR SEWARD AND

WHITTIER. WIND CHILLS 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW IN THE MORNING.

.TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 15 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE…COOLEST

INLAND. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH

NEAR SEWARD AND WHITTIER. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW AFTER

MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY…SUNNY IN THE MORNING…THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 5 BELOW TO

15 ABOVE…COOLEST INLAND. NORTHWEST WIND 15 MPH EXCEPT NORTH

15 TO 25 MPH NEAR SEWARD. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW IN THE

MORNING.

.SATURDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE…

COOLEST INLAND. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH

NEAR SEWARD.

.SUNDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY

CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 5 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE…

COOLEST INLAND. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 20 TO

30 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.SUNDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ZERO TO

10 ABOVE. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO

10 BELOW. HIGHS 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 15 -4 4 / 0 0 20

GIRDWOOD -1 -8 4 / 0 0 0

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Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.