Turnagain Pass
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Avalanche Warning
Issued: December 1, 2020 6:00 amTravel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avoid being on or beneath all steep slopes. |
We have issued a BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING through the National Weather Service for the Turnagain Pass area and surrounding mountains.
Avalanche danger is HIGH as a strong storm system that moved into the area yesterday afternoon continues through today. Heavy snowfall, strong winds, and rain will make large natural avalanches likely, and they will be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
SUMMIT LAKE TO SEWARD REGION: The avalanche warning extends down through the Summit Lakes area down to Seward, due to heavy precipitation, warm temperatures, and strong winds.
*Roof Avalanches: Warming temperatures and rain could cause roofs to begin to shed their snow. Pay special attention to children, pets and where you park your car.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
In the past 24 hours, the mountains have received 12-18” snow, equaling 1.1-1.7” snow water equivalent (SWE), and heavy precipitation is expected through the day. As of this morning, most of this precipitation has fallen as snow, but we are anticipating rain as high as 2500 feet throughout the day. Easterly winds were sustained 15-35 mph last night, with gusts as high as 110 mph. This combination of heavy snowfall and strong winds is rapidly loading start zones, and the snowpack will quickly loose strength when liquid water (read ‘rain’) is introduced. The snowpack does not react well to rapid change, and today we are making some big changes in a hurry. We can expect to see widespread natural activity during this storm, with large avalanches running far into runout zones. Avalanches failing within the new snow will be up to 4’ deep, and that doesn’t even take into account the potential for avalanches failing on weak layers deeper in the snowpack (see problem #2). At mid- to low elevations, these avalanches will involve wet snow, and they will have the potential to reach very long runout distances. There is no question about it, the current situation is dangerous, and it will get worse before it gets better. For now, we need to stay out of avalanche terrain.
Click Here for a video checking in from Seattle Ridge yesterday.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As if we didn’t already have enough to worry about with the storm snow issues, we also still have weak, faceted snow deep in the snowpack in many locations in our advisory area. This storm is placing a heavy burden on weak snow, and it is possible that we will see avalanches failing over 6′ deep in the snowpack. For today, we have plenty of clear signs indicating very dangerous conditions and avalanche terrain should be avoided entirely.
Tincan. We still don’t trust the weak snow near the ground. Photo: Eric Roberts. 11.30.2020
Yesterday: In the past 24 hours, the mountains have received 12-18” snow, equaling 1.1-1.7” snow water equivalent (SWE), with lower totals at lower elevations. Easterly winds were sustained 15-35 mph last night, with gusts as high as 110 mph.
Today: As of this morning, most of this precipitation has fallen as snow, but we are anticipating rain as high as 2500 feet throughout the day. We will receive up to 12-18” more snow by the end of the day, equaling 1.0-1.2” water. Below 2000’, almost all of this will fall as rain, with .75″ rain expected in Girdwood. Winds will be 15-25 mph out of the southeast, with high temperatures in the low- to mid 30’s.
Tomorrow: This storm will taper off tonight with low temperatures hovering in the low- to mid 30’s. Lingering precipitation will be mixed rain and snow, with 1-2” snow and about 0.1” water. South winds will be 5-15 mph, and high temperatures will be in the low- to mid 30’s.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 28 | 17 | 1.7 | 74 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 18 | 6 | 0.6 | 27 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 13 | 1.15 | 73 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 19 | ENE | 34 | 110 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 24 | ESE | 15 | 43 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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