Tue, April 02, 2019 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Tue, April 2nd, 2019

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Moderate (2)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Moderate (2)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Moderate (2)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Moderate (2)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Wet Loose
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Wet Loose

Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday was slightly cooler than the day before and overnight temperatures were cooler than the past couple nights. Clear skies promoted a solid freeze overnight. The snowpack has already seen many days of a springtime melt-freeze pattern in the low and mid-elevations. Overall the possibility of natural wet loose and wet slab avalanches has decreased. However, there is still the potential for person, on skis or a machine, to trigger an avalanche in the afternoon/evening on solar aspects as the crust breaks down and slopes get soft and punchy. This is heightened in the Alpine where the warming of the surface snow is more recent.

A safe day in the mountains includes planning ahead. Know the terrain you are traveling on and under and if it will be affected by the sun. The avalanche danger on steep slopes on the southern end of the compass will increase this afternoon/evening. Play the aspects for the best conditions and to stay safe. The boot test is a great way to assess how the daytime warming is, or is not, affecting the surface. If your boot easily sinks into mushy wet snow, it’s time to get onto shaded slopes or off the one you are on. Wet loose avalanches can start small from a person pushing soft wet snow as they ski or ride. If the terrain is large enough, this small slide can entrain snow and turn into a large and unmanageable avalanche.

CORNICES: Cornices are very large and direct sunshine will destabilize them. A cornice fall still has the potential to trigger an avalanche on the slope below and could break farther back than expected.

Snowmachine triggered wet loose avalanche on to the uptrack on Friday, 3-29-19. Photo: Sean Fallon

Cornice over Warm up bowl, 3-30-19. Photo: Graham Predeger. Give cornices a wide berth.

Avalanche Problem 2

Glide Avalanches
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Size of Avalanches

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Glide cracks are appearing throughout the advisory area and have been avalanching daily. Yesterday was the first day without notable activity reported but the message remains the same. Avoid traveling under glide cracks at all times of the day! Remember, glides can release even if a hard surface crust is present (unlike the wet loose and wet slab avalanche problems). Many cracks are opening up in popular terrain and keep an eye out for them. Glide avalanches are full depth avalanches that have the potential to very dangerous.

Glide avalanche South side of Wolverine, observed 3-30-19.

Glide avalanche Lynx creek, witnessed in motion on 3-29-19.

Weather

Tue, April 2nd, 2019

Yesterday: Sunshine and clear skies with temperatures in the high 30Fs to mid 40Fs. Winds were light and westerly. Overnight temperatures dipped into the 20Fs and mid to low 30Fs. Skies were clear and winds increased slightly overnight gusting into the teens.

Today: More sunshine and clear skies with temperatures in the 30Fs in the Alpine and 40Fs at lower elevations. Winds will be westerly 5-10 with gusts into the teens. Overnight skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures are forecast to decrease into Wednesday as cooler air moves over the region.

Tomorrow: Clear and sunny again with cooler temperatures and light winds. There is still some uncertainty about the precipitation potential on Thursday and Friday but expect clouds and a chance of rain/snow showers.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	39	0	0	66
Summit Lake (1400′)	34	0	0	22
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	40	0	0	59

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	32	W	3	13
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	37	W	1	4

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/31/23	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass area	Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster
01/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Backdoor	AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Brooke Edwards
01/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	W Wagner
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Tony Naciuk
01/27/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	John Sykes
01/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx Creek	Megan Guinn / W Wagner
01/25/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	John Sykes Forecaster
01/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Schauer/ Guinn
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Elias Holt

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.