Mon, March 16, 2015 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, March 16th, 2015

Alpine
Above 2,500'

High (4)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Considerable (3)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Moderate (2)

Alpine Above 2,500'		High (4)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Considerable (3)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Moderate (2)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Storm Slabs

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Rapid loading as a result of new snow and wind will create unstable conditions today. Slabs will vary in size and be thickest, up to 18” on leeward slopes. With wind speeds over 40 mph expect loading to occur lower down on slopes and in areas that are normally protected from the wind.

The danger will be more in the MODERATE range in general this morning. That will change quickly as the day progresses. Becasue of this it will be important to pay attention to rapidly changing conditions and pick your terrain carefully.

Recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapsing are key indicators of unstable snow. These signs should dictate where you travel today. In other words, avoid avalanche terrain if and when you begin noticing these signs.

Travel in the Alpine elevations is not recommended for the latter part of the day.

Weather

Mon, March 16th, 2015

Low pressure currently centered over the Alaska Peninsula has brought precip, wind and warmer temps to the area. Temperatures over the last 24 hours have seen a dramatic rise with ridgetops moving from 0 to 20 deg F. Winds have picked up in a similar dramatic fashion, with ridegtops reporting speeds in the 35-40mph range this morning. Storm totals so far are in the 5 €/.4 € (snow/H20) range.

Today expect snow to be heavy at times with up to 10 €/.9 € (snow/H20) of additional accumulation by the evening. Winds will be strong out of the East at 30-40mph. Temperatures will be in the low 30s F at 1,000′. Rain/snow line will hover between 500-1,000′.

Precipitation will taper off late this evening. Cloudy and showery conditions will continue through Tuesday with another round of significant precipitation on Wednesday.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	21	5	.3	47
Summit Lake (1400′)	22	1	.1	9
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	21	6	.4	31

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	12	ENE	26	76
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	15	na	24	48

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Will close on June 1.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.