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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, March 13th, 2010 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, March 14th, 2010 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning backcountry travelers this is Carl Skustad with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday March 13th, 2010 at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

WEATHER ROUNDUP

A trace of new snow in the forecast area this morning. Southeast winds remain light at sealevel, with gusts in the 20’s at ridgetops. Temperatures are 8 to 11 degrees F. The radar shows light scattered showers moving in our direction from Prince William Sound. The satellite indicated more partly cloudy skies. The next weather system looks to be moving into the area tomorrow.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Today’s danger level will stay at MODERATE due to lack of significant weather in the past 24-48 hours, time since the last major storm, and no significant weather forecasted for today.

Moderate avalanche danger means heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Natural avalanches unlikely; human triggered avalanches possible.

We’ve got some more beta on the human triggered Cornbiscuit avalanche that occurred on Thursday the 11th. It looks like it failed where the snowpack was thin and propagated nearly 500 ft pulling as deep as 6-7 ft. The bed surface and weak layer seem to be the new snow old snow interface that was created one week ago. I think there was enough solar warmth between storms to create a slight crust with facets associated under the crust. This same layer was observed on Sunburst and Sunnyside yesterday. All tests conducted on this layer indicate fair to good stability (CT scores of 23,26,20). The take home is, we have a weak layer and it is difficult to trigger. But, if you do trigger it, it could go big. I would expect to see trigger points for similar avalanche activity on steep south and southwest facing alpine terrain (38 deg. plus) where the snow is thin.

Many big lines were made yesterday on steep terrain and no reported avalanche activity. Make sure you follow your backcountry rituals today. One at a time, watch your partner, carry all your rescue gear and know how to use it, and have an escape route in mind if you travel on large terrain.


Looking at S face of Cornbiscuit avalanche, photo: Bailly



These photos look down the Cornbiscuit avalanche, the debris goes 100 ft up Lipps. Had someone been caught in this avalanche the consequences would have been large. photo: Bailly

 

WEATHER FORECAST (National Weather Service)

WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-

INCLUDING…WHITTIER…SEWARD…GIRDWOOD…MOOSE PASS

500 AM AKST SAT MAR 13 2010

.TODAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND

30. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 15 TO 30 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.TONIGHT…A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING…THEN SNOW LIKELY

AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 15 TO 25.

NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.SUNDAY…SNOW…MIXING WIT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION

1 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE 30S. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT

NORTH 20 TO 35 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.SUNDAY NIGHT…SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH

EXCEPT NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.MONDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE 30S.

VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS

25 TO 35.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 31 25 38 / 70 90 90

GIRDWOOD 28 21 37 / 30 60 60

WEATHER STATION SUMMARY for last 24 hours at TURNAGAIN PASS

3800′-Sunburst Wx Station

Current Temp: 8 deg F (11 deg warmer than yesterday)

Winds: average east winds are in the upper teens to lower 20’s, gust are in the 20’s

2600′-Seattle Ridge Wx Station

Winds: average SE winds of 7 with gusts to 9

1800′-Center Ridge Wx Station

Current Temp: 14 deg F (14 degrees warmer than yesterday)

Precip: 0, total snowpack 128 after anCNFAIC Staff 3 inches of settlement.

Thanks for checking today’s avalanche advisory. Lisa will post tomorrow morning, Saturday March 14, 2010.

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Sat, March 13th, 2010
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
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Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.