Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger is ‘scary MODERATE‘ due to possibility that a person could trigger a very large and dangerous slab avalanche. These slabs are 3-6′ thick and sitting on weak faceted snow. They could be triggered on, near or even below a slope. Although the likelihood of triggering is slowly decreasing, the consequences could still be deadly. Continued conservative decision making and terrain choices are necessary to limit this hazard.
Pay attention to blowing snow and loading if the northwest winds kick up today. Watch for lingering wind slabs on steep wind loaded slopes and cornice breaks along ridgelines. On steep slopes getting direct sun, watch for roller balls and loose snow sluffs with daytime heating.
SUMMIT LAKE TO SEWARD REGION: The likelihood for triggering a large slab avalanche is higher in this area due to a weaker snowpack structure and may see more wind effect today from increasing northwest winds. Extra caution is advised.
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Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As my colleague Wendy likes to say, “Don’t forget the bad news in the basement!” If you head out today to enjoy the sunshine and powder please remember that there are facets (weak sugary snow grains) that formed in January, buried 3-6′ deep that have been responsible for countless large slab avalanches. If you forgot what those avalanches look like, take a quick scroll back through the observations. Imagine the slopes you like to travel, having a slide like one of those while you are on it. If you polled avalanche professionals this might be one of the the scariest set-ups they can think of. Hence the ‘scary MODERATE’ avalanche hazard. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing because the thickness of the slab makes it harder to affect the weak layers, time is allowing the snowpack to slowly adjust to the weight of the slab and signs of instability have stopped. However, the consequences of triggering one of these very large avalanches could be deadly. It’s pretty much a gamble and you know what you are wagering. Areas with a shallower snowpack, such as the Summit Lake area, have a higher likelihood for triggering.
Heading out today? Here are a few things to consider.
*If you’d rather leave these issues behind, sticking to slopes 30° and less, with nothing steeper above you, is a great way to enjoy the excellent powder.
Video link HERE.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Wind slabs: Northwest winds are forecast to kick up today. These tend to have less of an impact in Turnagain Pass but can load slopes in Crow Pass, Summit Lake and terrain around Seward. Pay attention to blowing snow and loading. In addition, old lingering wind slabs from loading events earlier this week are still possible to trigger on steep loaded slopes. Remember, even a small wind slab triggered in the wrong place can take you for an unpleasant ride.
Other concerns for today:
Sun Effect: Solar heating in the afternoon may cause loose snow sluffs again today on steep southerly aspects (especially near rocky terrain).
Loose snow avalanches: Watch your sluff on steep wind protected slopes. Cold temperatures are making surface snow looser in areas out of the sun and wind.
Cornices: As always, give cornices a very wide berth and limit exposure under them.
Keep in mind, any one of the above issues on the surface has the potential to ‘step down’ and trigger a large slab.
Yesterday: Skies were mostly sunny with some patches of valley fog. With an inversion in place temperatures ranged from 20°Fs and high teens at upper elevations to single digits and low teens in the valley bottoms. Winds were westerly 5-10 mph with gusts into the 20s.
Today: Sunshine and patchy valley fog with temperatures in the teens and low 20°Fs. Winds will be westerly 10-20 mph with gusts into the 30s. Skies will be mostly clear overnight with winds decreasing and temperatures in the single digits.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy with snow in the forecast starting in the afternoon. Light northwest winds winds will shift to the east in the morning blowing 10-20 mph with gusts into the 30s. Temperatures will be in the 20°Fs. Snow continues overnight into Sunday.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 77 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 17 | 0 | 0 | 83 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 16 | W | 6 | 20 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 16 | *NA | *NA | *NA |
*Seattle Ridge anemometer (wind sensor) is heavily rimed and not reporting.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.