Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

There were no new avalanches reported yesterday. The last human-triggered avalanche was a large remote-triggered avalanche north of Girdwood on Tuesday. That was just the latest in a string of very large human-triggered avalanches in the area in the past 10 days. Check out observations from Magnum, Seattle Ridge, Sunburst, Palmer Creek (Hope), and Winner Creek to get a sense of the recent activity.

All our weak layers have healed and the mountains are good to go, APRIL FOOLS! We are still dealing with a deeply buried weak layer 3-6′ deep that has caused almost 20 large to very large avalanches over the past 10 days. These include a few historic size avalanches and several that were triggered remotely, meaning the party that triggered them was on lower angle terrain and the avalanche released in a steeper area connected to where the group was travelling. In a few of these recent avalanches the weak layer failed for half a mile or more across the slope and multiple large avalanches were triggered simultaneously. These are uncommon and dangerous conditions!

While the weak layer is likely gaining some strength over time and becoming more stubborn to trigger, due to the consequences of being involved with one of these avalanches we are still recommending avoiding slopes over 30 degrees and being very aware of the runout zones of large avalanche paths. With the sun expected to come out today and warm up the snowpack human triggered deep slab avalanches could be more likely on solar aspects this afternoon. There is also a chance that we could see natural deep slab avalanches if the sun is really cooking. Patience is the key to staying safe while we have this dangerous snowpack setup!

Poor snowpack structure near the top of the treeline elevation band on the NW shoulder of Lipps. 3.31.23

In addition to the scary deep slab problem, NW winds are expected to blow at 10-20 mph with stronger gusts throughout the day. With a few inches of soft snow on the surface above 1200′, the wind will be forming fresh wind slabs at upper elevations along ridgelines and cross loaded gullies. We expect these to be likely for human triggering and possible for natural avalanches up to a foot deep. To identify fresh wind slabs look for signs of active wind loading, hollow feeling snow, and shooting cracks on small steep test slopes. The wind loading today will make cornices more touchy and combined with the sun this afternoon we could see big chunks of cornice start to release naturally. Be aware if you are travelling underneath a cornice and give them plenty of space along upper elevation ridgelines.

Loose snow avalanches are also likely on solar aspects in the afternoon. These will be most likely to release on E, S and W aspects near areas with exposed rocks or trees. Typically loose snow avalanches are not a concern for burying a person but they can pack more force than you expect and push you into undesirable terrain.

Glide avalanches have also been active in recent weeks and the sunny skies and warm temperatures could make them more likely to release today. The best way to mitigate this unpredictable hazard is just to avoid spending time in the runout of an active glide crack.

Slowly starting to feel like springtime in Turnagain Pass, with good snow coverage and a melt freeze crust up to 1200′ due to warm temperatures. Photo 3.31.23