Summit & Central Kenai Mtns

Recent Avalanches: An avalanche was triggered on Tuesday afternoon, February 13 by a group of three backcountry skiers on John Mountain. Two of the three people involved sustained injuries and the third did not survive. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and family of the deceased. We have posted a preliminary accident report here and will publish a full report by the end of next week.

Several large natural avalanches were observed on the west face of Templeton and Butch Mountains on February 13 that were likely due to the wind loading. There was one smaller natural avalanche seen on the east face of Summit Mountain. The timing of this avalanche is unknown, but it may have been on February 15.

Weather Recap: Unusually springlike and windy conditions dominated the weather this week on the Kenai Peninsula. Average temperatures have been above freezing at the Summit Creek snotel weather station (1,400′) for the last four days. Average winds have been 10 to 25 mph primarily out of the east every day since last Friday. There was a large storm that moved through the Kenai Mountains last weekend, but Summit was on the light end of the precipitation accumulation totaling 3″ of new snow and 0.2″ of water on February 10.

Weather Forecast: The warm and windy pattern looks to continue through Saturday although winds should calm Saturday evening. Clouds should build tonight and remain partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend as a weak low pressure system approaches the Kenai. There is a chance the sun could poke through the clouds either day, which could warm things up dramatically if that is the case. Temperatures on Saturday look to be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and ridgetop winds are forecast to be coming from the east at 25 to 35 mph gusting into the 40’s. By Sunday ridgetop winds should calm to 5 to 10 mph out of the east and temperatures are forecast to hover around freezing at 32 degrees F. The mountains may see a trace of snow Saturday and Sunday. There is a larger storm approaching Monday evening that could bring more snow to the area so keep an eye on the Turnagain forecast for more details.

Overview of John Mountain avalanche where accident occurred on February 13, 2024. Photo: 2.14, 2024

There is a dangerous weak layer of faceted snow buried 1′ to 3′ below the surface in the Summit snowpack which developed during the January cold spell. The avalanche that buried 3 skiers on John Mtn on February 13th occurred on this weak layer. Large to very large human triggered avalanches remain likely on this layer, especially in areas with recent loading from strong easterly winds. It is possible for avalanches to be triggered remotely on this type of weak layer, which means you can cause an avalanche from above, below, or to the side of a steep slope. This avalanche problem exists at all elevations and on all aspects of the compass, even in sheltered areas with good skiing conditions. This type of persistent slab may not produce any red flags before avalanching, but a whumpf or shooting crack are clear signs of unstable snow. To avoid this avalanche problem we recommend sticking to slopes less than 30 degrees and minimizing your time in runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. This layer may heal with time but patience is required to stay safe.

Snowpack at John Mountain on February 14, 2024

Strong easterly winds have been blowing for over a week and will continue to blow this weekend making both human triggered and natural avalanches likely. The snow being deposited by the wind is adding stress to the buried weak layer of facets described in problem one. This could make a wind slab avalanche larger than expected up to 3′ deep. We recommend avoiding avalanche terrain and sticking to low angle slopes less than 30 degrees to avoid both the wind and persistent slab problems.

Wind slab avalanches that are filling back in with new wind loading on Butch Mountain. Photo by Alex McLain 2.14.2024