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Bottom Line: Wind slabs are going to be the most likely way to trigger an avalanche this weekend. We have 5″-7″ of new snow forecast with several inches of previous snow available for transport. There are two wind events, the larger event is Saturday night into Sunday morning with sustained 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph from the southeast. On a different note, we are also at that time of year when wet loose avalanches could start to be a problem if temperatures start to warm up. If the sun does come out, the first warning signs of wet avalanches will be rollerballs or pinwheels rolling down southerly slopes. If you start to see that kind of activity, we recommend moving to shaded terrain.
Avalanche Forecast Survey: Simon Fraser University is collaborating with US avalanche centers to better understand how useful avalanche forecast information is for trip planning. This research will help drive development of future avalanche forecast products. Click here if you are interested in participating in a 20 minute survey.
Recent Avalanches: Over the past week, we have had six observations with one observation documenting small to large old wet avalanches in Falls Creek. The date of the avalanche occurrences is unknown. We rely heavily on public observations, we always appreciate any information you all have to share. Thank you!
Weather Recap: There was a significant wind event last weekend with sustained 30-50 mph winds with gusts up to 70 mph from the southeast. The Front Range received roughly 7″ of new snow, the majority of which came in Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures this week ranged from 10F to 41F with an average of around 25F.
The new snow this week improved riding conditions. Snow depth in the Front Range is still variable from bare ground to over 11′ of snow in wind-deposited gullies. Even though it might not feel like spring right now, we still have been seeing trending warmer temperatures. It is not a bad idea to track surface conditions on southerly slopes.
Weather Forecast: Tonight and Saturday look like mostly overcast skies with 5″-7″ of new snow. The clouds look like they clear off most of the day on Sunday. There are two wind events in the forecast this weekend. The first is tonight (Friday, April 5th) with sustained 10 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph from the northwest. The second wind event is forecast to come in Saturday afternoon tapering off Sunday morning with sustained 10 to 25 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph from the southeast. Temperatures are forecast to range from mid-teens to mid-thirties Fahrenheit.
Wind Slabs: The Front Range is staying true to itself and its avalanche problems this weekend with wind slab avalanches as the number one concern. 5″-7″ of new snow is in the forecast this weekend. There are several inches of previous snow available for transport. As mentioned in the bottom line, there are two wind events, one coming in tonight with sustained 10 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph from the northwest. The larger wind event in the forecast is Saturday evening into Sunday morning with sustained 10 to 25 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph from the southeast. Depending on how much new snow comes in, the size and likelihood of the avalanches could vary. The wind slabs will most likely be at upper elevations. This may feel a bit redundant at this point, but carefully evaluate cross-loaded gullies, and rollover features, and be on the lookout for shooting cracks. Finding small test slopes is a good way to see whether wind slabs are reactive to human triggers.
Loose Wet: It is April right now, and we are right on the brink of transitioning from a winter snowpack to a springtime snowpack, especially at lower elevations. We saw some evidence of this happening already on our field day at Falls Creek. Sunday is looking like the day this weekend with a lot of direct sunlight and minimal wind. We recommend monitoring surface conditions when on a southerly aspect. The first sign of deteriorating conditions will be rollerballs or pinwheels (small chunks of snow picking up more snow while rolling down steep terrain). If you notice that kind of activity, we recommend moving to shaded terrain.
Persistent Slabs: We are still monitoring a couple of different layers in the snowpack, one is a layer of near-surface facets ~1.5″ down from the snow surface at higher elevations and we have been tracking a weak layer of facets at the bottom of the snowpack was well. We have not been getting concerning test results on these layers over the past week, the likelihood of someone triggering an avalanche on one of these layers is low, but still, something we want to pay attention to. If you are skiing off the Seward Highway, the other layer we want to mention is a thin layer of facets above a melt-freeze crust roughly ~8″ down from the snow surface. We found concerning test results on this layer on our field day in Falls Creek. Falls Creek is on the outskirts of our forecast area and is not representative of what is going on in the majority of the Chugach State Park. However, we wanted to highlight this in case anyone is heading that way this weekend.
Weather Stations
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/29/24 | Chugach State Park | Avalanche: Harp mtn west aspect | Dave Bass |
05/07/24 | Chugach State Park | Observation: Mt. Eklutna | Dawna Dewitt |
04/27/24 | Chugach State Park | Avalanche: Chugach Front Range Powerline Valley | Joe Kurtak Amy Holman |
04/16/24 | Chugach State Park | Observation: South Fork of Eagle River | Mary Gianotti/ Alyssa Wu Forecaster |
04/13/24 | Chugach State Park | Avalanche: South Fork Hiland Road | Brad Meiklejohn |
04/10/24 | Chugach State Park | Observation: Chugach Front Range Flattop | Joe Kurtak |
04/09/24 | Chugach State Park | Observation: South Fork of Eagle River | M. Gianotti/ A. Shauer/ B. Meiklejohn Forecaster |
04/08/24 | Chugach State Park | Avalanche: Arctic Valley/ Gordon Lyon | Felipe Abreu |
04/06/24 | Chugach State Park | Observation: Eagle River South Fork | Felipe Abreu |
04/06/24 | Chugach State Park | Avalanche: False Peak | Carolyn Highland |