Seward & Southern Kenai Mtns

The last known avalanche in the Seward area was observed Thursday, December 21, on a SE aspect of Resurrection South.  This slide likely occurred during the storm Tuesday and Wednesday (December 19-20) at the new snow/old snow interface.  There was also a widespread natural avalanche cycle observed on Sunday, December 17 that included loose dry and wind slab avalanches in the 2,000’ to 4,500’ elevation band.  These were observed on most aspects and were all new snow avalanches likely from the December 16 storm.  If you are seeing avalanches send us a quick observation, we would love to get more information from this zone!

Weather Recap:  It has been another exciting weather week on the Kenai.  There were two notable storm events this week.  The first was last weekend. From Friday through Sunday (Dec. 15-17),  the Seward mountains received 6-12” of snow.  The east winds increased Saturday, which resulted in the widespread natural new snow avalanche activity described above.  The second storm last week began on Monday and tapered off Wednesday bringing at least 13” to the Seward zone.  The north wind started to blow Wednesday night, December 20 through Thursday, December 21, which likely caused the wind slab avalanche observed on Resurrection South yesterday.  

Weather Forecast:  A Christmas storm is on the way and it is snowing in Seward as I write this forecast.  1-3’ of snow is forecast to fall above 1,500’ in the Seward and Lost Lake areas by Sunday morning.   Easterly ridgetop winds are forecast in the 10-40 mph range gusting to 60 mph.  Winds should calm by Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures should increase, potentially bringing rain to 1,500’ on Saturday, but the storm should cool off and temperatures look to decrease into the low 20’s F on Sunday bringing snow back to sea level as the storm tapers off. 

Forecasted snowfall totals from 3am Saturday-3am Sunday, December 23-24, 2023.  Image courtesy of the NWS.  12.22.23

A big storm has arrived to the Kenai.  With 1-3’ of new snow expected in the mountains by Sunday and sustained winds of up to 40 mph, both storm and wind slabs will be our main concerns this weekend.  This storm is starting cold and warming up, which will make for an “upside down” structure with a heavier layer of snow on top of a lighter layer.  This can increase the likelihood of new snow avalanches.  Expect to see storm slab avalanches in areas sheltered from the winds and wind slabs in areas that see wind loading. These types of new snow avalanches could be big enough to bury a person and are likely to be found everywhere if the precipitation and wind forecast verifies.  This storm is going to put a heavy load on the snowpack that does have a weak layer that is buried fairly deep and there’s a small chance this could cause a much larger avalanche.  (See video below).  We don’t think this problem exists in the entire Seward zone, but we found it in the Carter Lake area and we suspect it exists in the northern and western areas where there is less snow than the areas closer to the ocean.  The best way to completely avoid all of these avalanche problems is to stay out of avalanche terrain this weekend.  If you are getting out, we recommend riding slopes that are less than 30 degrees and staying out of runout zones.  

Lost Lake wind affected surface conditions before the storm arrived.  Photo Jordan Rymer 12.21.23