Seward & Southern Kenai Mtns

Recent Avalanches: Over the past week wet loose avalanches large enough to bury a person have been reported in the Seward and Lost Lake areas. These have been on south and east slopes. We have limited information, but it is possible other avalanches released last week.

Weather Recap: Last weekend a storm brought rain to around 2000′ and 1″ of new snow (0.3″ of SWE) was reported in the mountains. For the rest of the week, warm springtime conditions brought mostly sunny skies, moderate winds from the north, and temperatures in the 40s F to mid 20s F.

Weather Forecast: Over the weekend a storm tracking from the southwest is forecast to bring cloudy skies, strong winds, rain and snow to the Seward area. On Saturday expect strong southeast winds gusting 20 to 35 mph, rain switching to snow around 1500′ with a few inches of snow expected. Temperatures look to range from the low 40’s F near the highway to mid 20s F in the mountains. On Sunday cloudy skies are forecast to continue to bring strong ridgetop (20 to 30 mph) winds from the southeast to east with up to 5″ of new snow. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler (mid 30s F to mid 20s F) with the rain switching to snow around 1000′.

If the forecast verifies over the weekend, it could be possible to trigger a small wind slab avalanche up to 1′ deep in mid to upper elevations. Wind slabs will likely be forming over a sun crust on sunny slopes as well as on shaded slopes where old snow and new snow may form fresh wind slabs. These problems can be found below ridgelines, smooth rollovers (convexities), as well as in cross loaded gullies. If you see blowing snow, feel stiff snow over soft snow, see shooting cracks, or hear whumpfing, it is likely you are traveling on a wind loaded slope and it may be time to re-evaluate your terrain choices.

Cornices: Although it is unlikely over the weekend, warmer temperatures mixed with blowing snow can cause a cornice to fracture, triggering an avalanche from above. Look for cornices as you travel and try to limit time underneath them, especially if the wind is blowing snow off of the ridges. It is also recommended to avoid traveling on cornices as they can break further back than expected.

It will be possible to trigger a wet loose avalanche large enough to bury a person in steep slopes in mid to lower elevations. We are transitioning from winter to spring backcountry conditions where winter AND spring avalanche problems exist. The likelihood of you triggering a wet loose avalanche depends on how cold it freezes at night and how much rain the mid to lower elevations receives. If the temperatures remain above freezing overnight at these elevations and rain continues decrease the strength to the snowpack, this problem will become more likely. Indicators that the snow is becoming unstable are testing your boot to see if it sinks all the way into the snow, warmer temperatures at the car than expected, or you see natural avalanche activity.

Wet loose avalanches below the rocks and rollerballs. Seeing rollerballs rolling down the mountain are a good indicator that wet loose avalanches are becoming more likely. Photo 3.21.2024

There is still an outside chance of triggering a larger avalanche on a layer of weak snow buried 1′ to 3′ deep. This is becoming more unlikely because we are not getting concerning results in our snow pits and have not seen avalanches on these layers in more than three weeks. This is telling us that this problem is no longer widespread and is becoming harder to trigger. However, it is more likely to trigger an avalanche in the Carter Lake and Snug Harbor area as these layers are healing slower. Time will continue to heal these layers as well as traveling one at a time on steep slopes.