Seward & Southern Kenai Mtns

Recent Avalanches: Natural wet loose avalanches on steep south facing slopes were observed across the Seward region. We have not heard reports of new avalanches in Lost Lake or Snug Harbor so be on the lookout for recent avalanches that are red flags for unstable snow. The Carter Lake area has seen significant natural avalanches on all aspects likely occurring last week and failing on a weak layer.

Weather Recap: Over the weekend, clouds increased as a storm arrived on Monday and Tuesday bringing 5″ of new snow and northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph to the Seward and Lost Lake areas. On Wednesday, the storm dissipated bringing blues skies and spring like conditions with temperatures in the low 30’s F. Few clouds and blue skies continued on Thursday into Friday with moderate northwest winds (10 to 20 mph).

Weather Outlook: A low moving west into Prince William Sound is forecast to bring clouds, around 5″ of new snow, and moderate winds to the Seward forecast area. On Saturday expect clouds to move in, northwest winds (5 to 10 mph) gusting to 15 mph, and snow showers beginning late afternoon. Overnight Saturday could see 5″ of new snow. The storm looks to linger on Sunday bringing light snow (1 to 2″) and east winds that could pick up in the afternoon to gusts in the 20’s mph. Temperatures throughout the weekend should average between 10 to 25 F.

On Saturday triggering an older wind slab 1′ deep on steep wind loaded slopes will be the main concern. This will become more concerning on Sunday as fresh wind slabs 1′ deep will be forming as the storm brings up to 5″ of new snow and moderate east winds. It is important to mention that new wind slabs on Sunday will be easier to trigger than older wind slabs on Saturday. Pay attention to changing weather over the weekend especially if you see blowing snow. Other indicators that you are traveling on a wind slab are firm snow over soft snow, and cracks shooting from underneath you. These red flags are typically found below ridges and rollovers and in cross loaded gullies. Traveling tests such pole probing, hand pits, and testing small slopes can give you valuable information on how likely wind slabs are to avalanche. On Saturday, assess slopes for sensitive wind slabs as you travel into steeper terrain. Adjust your travel plans on Sunday to a more cautious approach into steep terrain as new wind slabs will be easier to trigger.

Wet Loose: Spring conditions have arrived and with it wet loose avalanche activity has been increasing on steep south facing slopes. These can be large enough to carry a person off a cliff, into a tree, or into a terrain trap where snow can pile up and bury a person. As a slope heats up from the sun throughout the day, rollerballs and natural wet loose avalanches are great indicators that a human could trigger one of these avalanches. It is best to avoid steep sunny slopes later in the day that have been baking in the sun.

Wet Loose avalanche on a steep south facing slope likely releasing on March 6. Photo 3.6.2024

In the Carter Lake area, it is possible to trigger a slab avalanche 1-3′ deep on a buried weak layer of snow.  The most concerning weak layer is buried about 8″ deep that disappears around 2,400′.  Above 2,400′ the January facet layer is buried up to 3′ deep and is still capable of triggering a large avalanche. Although the January weak layer is becoming stronger in test pits, we have seen large avalanches that likely occurred on this layer in Carter Lake about a week ago. Red flags such as cracking, collapsing, and whumphfing sounds are all indicators that the slope is capable of avalanching, however, there may be no evidence until an avalanche occurs. Persistent slabs can be very difficult to assess and tend to heal slowly so it is recommended to stick to slopes under 30 degrees to allow these weak layers more time to stabilize.

This avalanche problem is more likely in the Carter Lake area because it has thinner snowpack similar to Summit Pass. If you are interested in checking out this zone, check this observation and the Summit Outlook to get a bit more info on this problem.

Multiple avalanches that likely released on a buried weak layer in the Carter Lake area. Photo 3.6.2024