Seward & Southern Kenai Mtns

Recent Avalanches: Over the past week we observed a few glide avalanches on a southeast aspect at about 2,500′ on an un-named mountain located northwest of Lost Lake. There were new glide cracks forming in this area and one large glide crack on the south face of Cooper Mountain. There were a handful of small wind slabs on south aspects in the upper elevations between V-max and Mount Adair that looked like they released in the last few days during the north wind event.

Weather Recap: This has been a cold and windy week in Seward with north winds averaging in the teens and 20’s mph at the Seward airport every day since last Friday, January 26. After several weeks without much precipitation a storm came in on Sunday, January 28 bringing a total of about 10″ of new snow to the Grouse Creek weather station at Mile 12 on the Seward highway. The Cooper Lake weather station recorded 8″ of new snow from the storm so conditions were similar across the Seward zone.

Weather Forecast: It looks like a pattern change is heading towards the Kenai Mountains. The cold weather is forecast to move out and a series of small storms should move in. The north winds should decrease this evening and shift to the south. Clouds look to build Saturday morning along with south winds. On Saturday ridgetop winds in the Lost Lake area are forecast to be 20-30 mph from the south and temperatures look to be 5-10 degrees F. Precipitation should begin Saturday afternoon with a total accumulation of 3-4″ of new snow forecast by Sunday morning. Sunday looks to remain cloudy with precipitation tapering off by noon. Temperatures should warm to 15-20 degrees F and ridgetop winds are forecast to shift to the north at 10-15 mph.

Recent wind slab avalanche, glide avalanche and glide cracks on the Snug Harbor side of Lost Lake. 2.1.2024

After an entire week of north wind, a few inches of new snow and more wind in the forecast, wind slab is our primary concern this weekend. The winds are forecast to shift to the south on Saturday and back to the north on Sunday so these wind slabs could be found on any aspect around the compass and will be possible for a machine or person to trigger anywhere above treeline. Look for red flags such as snow blowing off ridgelines and across gully features, recent avalanches, and cracks shooting out from you. Wind slabs tend to look smooth and feel firm beneath you. The higher you go the more sensitive these slabs will be to trigger.

It could be that the wind slabs this weekend are possible to trigger days after they form. This is not normal behavior for a wind slab (wind slabs normally stabilize within 24-48 hours), but during the last two weeks of cold temperatures a layer of weak snow formed at the surface (up to 1′ of near surface facets). The 3-4″ of new snow forecast is not enough weight to make this layer fail, but the wind could very quickly create a slab that could tip the balance and cause an avalanche on this layer. We have some uncertainty about this because this weak layer has existed for at least a week with active wind loading and very few avalanches observed. This is a layer that we will be tracking and keep you posted on it’s behavior.

North winds blowing off ridges and across gully features in the Lost Lake area. Mount Ascension is the tallest peak in the photo. 2.1.2024

Snowpack on Snug Harbor side of Lost Lake showing the weak snow that could be a problem for a while once buried by a slab. 2.1.2024

The most recent glide activity we have observed is on the Snug Harbor side of Lost Lake. There are a handful of cracks on southern aspects and a few glide avalanches. We have limited information for this zone so there may be more glide activity than we are aware of. These avalanches are large and destructive because they fail at the ground without warning and take the entire seasons snowpack with them. We recommend watching for these cracks or “brown frowns” and avoid travel underneath them. If an alternate route is not possible, we recommend making a plan that includes watching the slope above, stopping in safe zones, and traveling quickly.

Recent glide and wind slab avalanches on the Snug Harbor side of Lost Lake. 2.1.2024