CNFAIC Avalanche Advisory (Summit Area)

Saturday, January 28th 2012 Current Advisory (Summit Lake Area)

Alex McClain — 2012-01-28T16:37:00+01:00

Good morning backcountry travelers, this is Alex McLain with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday January, 28th at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Summit Lake as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas). This advisory expires in 24 hours after posting.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Natural avalanches unlikely; human- triggered avalanches possible. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features;Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Identify features of concern. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Discussion:

Over the past week cold temperatures and periods of moderate winds (20-30mph NE) have loaded upper elevations. Yesterday I observed several small slab avalanches that had come down recently in cross loaded gullies on west aspect and from cornice breaks(Butcher Peak across from Lower Summit Lake). Wind loaded slopes are the main area of concern. It will be possible that a person could trigger these areas today. Good terrain management and route finding to avoid these recently wind loaded slopes is essential.

At lower elevations not loaded by winds stability is generally good. Low density snows earlier in the week and cold temperatures have made for some good skiing and riding. Temperatures remain cold(-13 F) and the forecast does not show any additional snow until Monday so conditions should remain as they are for now.

Look for isolated areas of wind loading today that may increase avalanche danger in a specific area. On Friday I witnessed several areas still getting wind loaded but it was sporadic and not in all locations. Some of these areas of concern are South facing gullies off Manitoba, South and west aspect of Tenderfoot Ridge, Templeton and Butcher Peak (West aspect), Wrong Mountain above Carter Lake, and South aspects in Lost Lake. Take the time today to look at the slopes and make a good plan to avoid these wind loaded areas.

Enjoy the sun and stay warm!

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Summit Lake Snowtel: Snow Depth 48" Current Temp. -14F (past 24 hours High -8F, Low -24F)

Fresno Weather Station: Current Temp. +1F Wind Speed: NW 2-7mph,
Max gust North 11mph

WEATHER ROUNDUP

Zone Forecast: Western Prince William Sound Mobile Weather Information

Last Update: 500 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2012

Today...Sunny inland. Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers along the coast this morning...then clearing in the afternoon. highs 5 below to 10 above...coolest inland. Light winds except north 15 to 25 mph near seward. Near whittier...west wind increasing to 15 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight...Mostly clear. Lows 10 below to 20 below except 5 to 10 above along the coast. Light winds. Near seward...north wind 15 to 25 mph. Near whittier...west wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Sunday...Partly sunny. Highs 10 to 20 above...coolest inland. Light winds. Near seward...north wind 10 to 25 mph. Near whittier...west wind 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows zero to 20 above...coolest inland. Variable wind to 10 mph.

Monday...Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Variable wind 10 mph except north 15 to 25 mph near seward.

Monday Night...Snow likely. Lows 15 to 25.

Tuesday And Tuesday Night...Cloudy with a chance of snow. highs in the 20s. Lows 15 to 25.

Wednesday And Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the 20s. Lows in the teens.

Thursday Through Friday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 15 to 25. Lows in the teens.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 9 2 19 / 0 0 0
GIRDWOOD 3 -8 13 / 0 0 0

Always remember that safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Thanks for checking today�s avalanche conditions. The next posting for Summit Lake area will be at 7am Saturday February 4th. If you have information that you would like to share hit the public observations link and submit it or call me at (907)288-7710.

Saturday, January 21st 2012 Current Advisory (Summit Lake Area)

Alex McClain — 2012-01-21T16:13:00+01:00

Good morning backcountry travelers, this is Alex McLain with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday January, 21 at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Summit Lake as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas). This advisory expires in 24 hours after posting.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Natural avalanches unlikely; human- triggered avalanches possible. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Identify features of concern.

Discussion:

Natural Avalanche activity in the area has stopped after a round of avalanches last week but the possibility of human triggered avalanches exists at upper elevations on steep terrain that had been previously wind loaded. With the recent cold temperatures the snow has formed facets and can cause point release slides that have the potential of sweeping you off your feet. Today point release avalanches are a concern as well as triggering a shallow slab avalanche on slopes of 35 degrees or steeper. It will be important to identify area of concern and plan your route.

Over the past week we have seen cold clear conditions and light winds in the Summit Lake Area with surface hoar frost forming to an elevation of 2800�. Although this will not be a factor today it will become a concern when it gets buried by new snow. We will need to keep this in mind as another storm enters the area Sunday. Avalanche danger trend will be increasing starting Sunday and into early next week.

Have a safe day and stay warm!

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Summit Lake Snowtel: Snow Depth 46" Current Temp. -7F
(past 24 hours High +2, Low -14)

Fresno Weather Station: Current Temp. +1F Wind Speed: NW 2-5mph,
Max gust North 17mph

WEATHER ROUNDUP

Zone Forecast: Western Prince William Sound Mobile Weather Information

Last Update: 500 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012

Today...Mostly sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs zero to 10 above except around 15 near seward and whittier. North wind 20 to 35 mph near seward. Near whittier...west wind 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph...diminishing to 25 mph in the afternoon. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph elsewhere.

Tonight...Mostly cloudy with isolated snow showers in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Lows 10 below to 5 above...coolest inland. Variable wind 10 mph except north 15 to 25 mph near seward.

Sunday...Snow likely. Snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Highs in the mid teens to lower 30s. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph except north 10 to 20 mph near seward.

Sunday Night...Snow likely. Lows 5 to 15 above. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Monday...Snow likely. Highs in the mid teens to lower 30s. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Lows 5 to 15.

Tuesday...Snow likely. Highs in the teens.

Tuesday Night And Wednesday...Cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows zero to 10 above. Highs 5 to 15.

Wednesday Night And Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows zero to 10 above. Highs zero to 10 above.

Thursday Night And Friday...Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 10 above. Highs zero to 10 above.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 16 4 28 / 0 60 70
GIRDWOOD 0 -3 20 / 0 50 60

Always remember that safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Thanks for checking today�s avalanche conditions. The next posting for Summit Lake area will be at 7am Saturday January 28th. If you have information that you would like to share hit the public observations link and submit it or call me at (907)288-7710.

Saturday, January 14th 2012 Current Advisory (Summit Lake Area)

Alex McClain — 2012-01-14T16:15:00+01:00

Good morning backcountry travelers, this is Alex McLain with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday January 14th at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Summit Lake as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas). This advisory expires in 24 hours after posting.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Dangerous Avalanche Conditions Exist, Natural avalanches possible; human- triggered avalanches Likely. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. Avoid windlaoded slopes and runout zones.

Discussion:

Today dangerous avalanche conditions exist due to windloading over the past 24-48 hours. Winds out of the N to NW have loaded slopes from Summit Lake Area, Carter Lake, Cooper Landing Area, Snow River, Lost Lake and the mountains around Seward. A Large avalanche released at 3:30 yesturday afternoon on Summit Peak (MP 45 Seward Highway)starting in the loading zone and travelling to the valley floor. Winds at Summit Lake are currently NW 10-25mph gust to 55 mph. Additional windloading is the main concern today. The additional loading will increase the likelyhood of additional natural avalanches and make travel in avalanche terrain hazerdous.

Yesturday I got out in the Summit Lake area and found the snowpack was reactive to me with poor structure, localized colapsing "whumphing", and some shooting cracks. Careful assessment and good route finding is essential to staying safe out there. The best plan today will be to avoid windloaded slope and the runout zones. Think before you go!

Be Safe and stay warm!

WEATHER ROUNDUP
Zone Forecast: Western Prince William Sound Mobile Weather Information

Last Update: 500 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2012

Today...Sunny. Highs zero to 15 above...coolest inland. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph except west 35 to 50 mph near whittier. Near seward...north wind 20 to 35 mph.

Tonight...Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 10 below to 15 above...coolest inland. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph except west 35 to 50 mph near whittier. Near seward...north wind 20 to 30 mph.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 25 above...coolest inland. North wind 10 to 15 mph except west 35 to 50 mph near whittier. Near seward...north wind 20 to 30 mph.

Sunday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows 10 below to 15 above...coolest inland. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph except north 20 to 30 mph near seward.

Martin Luther King Jr Day...Mostly sunny. Highs 10 to 20 above. Variable wind 10 mph except north 20 to 30 mph near seward.

Monday Night...Mostly clear. Lows 5 below to 5 above.

Tuesday Through Thursday Night...Mostly clear. Highs 5 to 15 above. Lows 5 below to 5 above.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Highs zero to 10 above.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 16 5 24 / 0 0 0
GIRDWOOD 11 4 18 / 0 0 0

Always remember that safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Thanks for checking today�s avalanche conditions. The next posting for Summit Lake area will be at 7am Saturday January 21st. If you have information that you would like to share hit the public observations link and submit it or call me at (907)288-7710.

Saturday, January 7th 2012 Current Advisory (Summit Lake Area)

Alex McClain — 2012-01-07T16:43:00+01:00

Good morning backcountry travelers, this is Alex McLain with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday January 7th at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Summit Lake as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas). This advisory expires in 24 hours after posting.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Natural avalanches possible on windloaded slopes; human- triggered avalanches Likely. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential for areas of newly formed wind slab.

Discussion:

Today we have a new storm entering in to the area with light snow and moderate winds. This wind has been blowing the light density snow around easily. Forecasted snow amount is 3-6" and 1-3" tonight. Yesturday we had a brief period of windloading on South and west facing slopes mainly in the area of Carter Lake Area and the mountains around Cooper Landing and South toward Seward. This trend will continue today with the new storm loading South and West aspects. These new slabs will be sitting on a layer of facets under a crust.

Yesturday no new avalanches were noted with 8" of snow from the previous storm which had been blown off and loaded South and west facing slopes with no new avalanches. The big question is will today's storm tip the scale on these windloaded slopes.

At lowerer elevations and areas not windloaded things do look better with the possibility of triggering something small on steeper terrain with the new snow and facets. Have a safe day and remember 90 percent of human triggered avalanches happen during or just after a storm.

WEATHER ROUNDUP

Forecast: Western Prince William Sound Mobile Weather Information

Last Update: 500 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

Today...Snow. Snow accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Highs in the mid teens to lower 30s...coolest inland. Variable wind 10 mph. Near seward...north wind 10 to 25 mph. Near whittier...west wind 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight...Snow. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows 10 to 25 above...coolest inland. Northwest wind 15 mph except west 20 to 35 mph near whittier.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Highs 15 to 25...coolest inland. northwest wind 10 to 15 mph except west 25 to 40 mph near whittier.

Sunday Night...Mostly clear. Lows 5 below to 15 above...coolest inland. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph except west 15 to 25 mph near whittier.

Monday...Partly cloudy in the morning...then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs 10 to 25 above. West wind 15 mph becoming variable in the afternoon.

Monday Night...Snow. Lows in the teens.

Tuesday...Snow likely. Highs in the 20s.

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night...Snow likely. Lows 15 to 25. Highs in the 20s.

Thursday And Thursday Night...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the 20s. Lows zero to 10 above.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the teens.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 24 19 23 / 100 60 0
GIRDWOOD 24 18 19 / 100 100 50

Always remember that safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Thanks for checking today�s avalanche conditions. The next posting for Summit Lake area will be at 7am Saturday January 14th. If you have information that you would like to share hit the public observations link and submit it or call me at (907)288-7710.

Saturday, December 31st 2011 Current Advisory (Summit Lake Area)

Kevin Wright — 2011-12-31T17:18:00+01:00

Good morning backcountry travelers, this is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday December 31st at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Summit Lake as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas). This advisory expires in 24 hours after posting.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Natural avalanches unlikely; human- triggered avalanches possible. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Identify features of concern. Old windslab avalanches are still visible. A weaker snowpack is dominant through the region.

Discussion:

Summit lake, like most of the region from Girdwood to Seward, has had a quiet week for avalanche problems. The hazard is slowly dropping over time as our last major snowfall fades into the past. We are still able to find evidence of past avalanche activity in the Summit region, something that you can no longer find around Turnagain Pass.

The snowpack in most areas around Summit is still relatively weak. Pit observations show our last major snowfall (more than a week ago) is sitting on a couple of troubling weak layers. The rain crust from December 3rd is decomposing a little, but has weak facet growth around it. In the absence of major snowfall I think it would be unlikely to trigger an avalanche on this layer, but there remains a degree of uncertainty with problems like this. To minimize your chances of triggering an avalanche I would try to stay on deeper areas where the strength and depth of the surface snow will insulate your effect from collapsing any weaknesses.

There is also a prominent layer of weak faceted snow from November lower down in the snowpack. These persistent weak layers will stay for a long time, lying dormant in the absence of new stress, but wakening in exceptional circumstances. I think it is possible to trigger these weak layers if you found the sweet spot. It�s also something to keep in mind when we get our next big storm. A foot or two of additional snow load will almost certainly cause natural avalanches within these older and deeper weak layers.

WEATHER ROUNDUP

ESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS
500 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 10 TO
15 ABOVE. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR SEWARD. WEST 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR
WHITTIER. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH NEAR SEWARD. WEST
15 TO 25 MPH NEAR WHITTIER. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
.NEW YEARS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 15 TO
25...COOLEST INLAND. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT WEST 25 TO
40 MPH NEAR WHITTIER.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 10 TO
25 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT WEST 25 TO 40 MPH
NEAR WHITTIER.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 15 TO
25...COOLEST INLAND. NORTH WIND 15 MPH
EXCEPT WEST 25 TO 40 MPH NEAR WHITTIER.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE.
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 15 TO 25. LOWS
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS. LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS 5 TO 15 ABOVE. HIGHS 15 TO 25.
&&
TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 10 4 19 / 30 20 50
GIRDWOOD 8 3 15 / 30 20 60

Always remember that safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Thanks for checking today�s avalanche conditions. The next posting for Summit Lake area will be at 7am Saturday December 31st. If you have information that you would like to share hit the public observations link and submit it or call me at (907)288-7710.