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        <title>CNFAIC Avalanche Advisory (Turnagain Pass Area)</title>
        <description>Chugach National Forest Avalanche Advisory</description>
        <link>http://www.cnfaic.org/advisories/current.php</link>
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       <dc:date>2010-03-12T22:13:43+01:00</dc:date>
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        <dc:format>text/html</dc:format>
        <dc:date>2010-03-12T16:02:00+01:00</dc:date>
        <dc:source>http://www.cnfaic.org</dc:source>
        <dc:creator>Carl Skustad</dc:creator>
        <title>Friday, March 12th 2010    Current Advisory (Turnagain Area)</title>
        <link>http://www.cnfaic.org/advisories/current.php?id=258</link>
        <description>Danger Rating: Moderate&lt;br&gt;Trend: NO TREND Danger&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Good morning backcountry travelers this is Carl Skustad with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Friday March 12th, 2010 at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER ROUNDUP&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
Southeast winds remain light this morning. Temps are chilly ranging from -9 at Summit Lake to 8 at sealevel in Girdwood.  Ridgetops are seeing 2 to -3 degrees F.  The radar image shows scattered precip over Prince William Sound and the satellite indicated partly clear. No new snow in the last 24 hours.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;AVALANCHE DISCUSSION&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Today’s danger level will stay at  MODERATE due to lack of significant weather in the past 24-48 hours, time since the last major storm, and no significant weather forecasted for today.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Moderate avalanche danger means heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features.  Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Natural avalanches unlikely; human triggered avalanches possible.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/img/forecastor_obs/365-yes_2010_Mar_11_1938-3.jpg&quot; width =&quot;500&quot; &gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
We received a report of a human triggered avalanche on the south aspect of Cornbiscuit yesterday afternoon.  The slope had been skied 5 plus times prior to release.  The avalanche was triggered when a pair of skinners pushed the skin track farther up the ridge than previous.  The avalanche was triggered in a shallower snowpack near some rocks and propagated 300-500 ft across.  It broke 1-3 ft deep and ran full track to the valley below.  No one was caught.  The group had dug a previous pit and found fair to good stability.  This proves the snowpacks spacial variability.  The weak layer is unclear.  No other reports of any signs of instability in the area.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/img/forecastor_obs/364-yes_2010_Mar_11_1938-1.jpg&quot; width =&quot;500&quot; &gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Areas of concern today include hanging snow fields in complex terrain.  Old wind slabs may be present.  Weak layers may be closer to the surface and able to be triggered where the snowpack is shallower.  Take time to test the snow you are traveling on.  Keep the human factors in check today.  Stability may be moderate, but this kind of snow, weather and stability can still produce dangerous avalanches.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Snowfall totals from Monday’s storm at the highway elevation snow stakes at Turnagain Pass were 31 inches at Eddies, 31 inches at the Motorized lot, 22 inches at Sunburst, and 19 inches at Johnson Pass.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Glide cracks are secondary concern today since this new load of snow is still actively settling and moving.  A full depth release avalanched a couple days before Monday’s storm in Girdwood Valley (see photo gallery).  Glide cracks are like cornices in that they are wild cards that are very difficult to predict.     &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER FORECAST&lt;/b&gt; (National Weather Service)&lt;br /&gt;
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-&lt;br /&gt;
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS&lt;br /&gt;
500 AM AKST FRI MAR 12 2010&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 15 TO&lt;br /&gt;
25. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH. NEAR WHITTIER...WEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. &lt;br /&gt;
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO&lt;br /&gt;
20 ABOVE. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH. &lt;br /&gt;
.SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS&lt;br /&gt;
AROUND 30. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH NEAR&lt;br /&gt;
SEWARD. &lt;br /&gt;
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WIND 10 TO&lt;br /&gt;
15 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH NEAR SEWARD. &lt;br /&gt;
.SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 30S. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO&lt;br /&gt;
15 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH NEAR SEWARD. &lt;br /&gt;
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
               TEMPERATURE     /    PRECIPITATION    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
SEWARD       19     14     31  /  40     40     70 &lt;br /&gt;
GIRDWOOD     26     14     29  /  30     30     40 &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER STATION SUMMARY&lt;/b&gt; for last 24 hours at TURNAGAIN PASS&lt;br /&gt;
3800’-Sunburst Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: -3 (3 degrees warmer than yesterday)&lt;br /&gt;
Winds: sensor not working this morning&lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
2600’-Seattle Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Winds:  sensor not working this morning&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
1800’-Center Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: 0&lt;br /&gt;
Precip: 0, total snowpack 131 after another 2 inches of settlement. &lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
Thanks for checking today’s avalanche advisory. The next one will be posted tomorrow Saturday March 13, 2010.&lt;br /&gt;
</description>
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        <dc:date>2010-03-11T17:11:00+01:00</dc:date>
        <dc:source>http://www.cnfaic.org</dc:source>
        <dc:creator>Matt Murphy</dc:creator>
        <title>Thursday, March 11th 2010    Current Advisory (Turnagain Area)</title>
        <link>http://www.cnfaic.org/advisories/current.php?id=257</link>
        <description>Danger Rating: Moderate&lt;br&gt;Trend: Decreasing Danger&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Good morning backcountry travelers this is Matt Murphy with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Thursday March 11th, 2010 at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER ROUNDUP&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
-The winds are currently calm to light at all ridge top weather stations averaging 0-7mph with light max gust up to 16mph.&lt;br /&gt;
-In the last 24 hours (5am-5am), the snotel sites recorded: 0.1 inch of water and 4 inches of snow settlement at Grandview, and 0.0 inches of water and 2 inches snow settlement at Summit Creek.&lt;br /&gt;
-The current radars are mostly clear.&lt;br /&gt;
-Temps have cooled off at all weather stations by 2-3 degrees since yesterday morning except for Summit Creek which increased by 10 degrees. Current temps are 6 degrees F at sea-level and negative 6 degrees F at 3800’.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;AVALANCHE DISCUSSION&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Today’s danger level will decrease to MODERATE due to lack of significant weather in the past 24-48 hours, time since the last major storm, and a weak weather forecast for today.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Snowfall totals from Monday’s storm at the highway elevation snow stakes at Turnagain Pass were 31 inches at Eddies, 31 inches at the Motorized lot, 22 inches at Sunburst, and 19 inches at Johnson Pass.  Yesterday’s tour up Tincan found variable depths due to wind so it’s hard to say exactly how much snow fell at higher elevations.  We did not see, feel, hear, or observe any obvious signs of instability on Tincan Common or in the trees yesterday.  We got no results from stomping on test slopes or ski cuts.  From this tour on this moderate terrain, everything hinted towards LOW danger, but the snowpack is still moving and adjusting from that last load.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The snotel sites are still showing 9-11 inches of settlement in the last 48 hours; so, the snowpack is still actively moving.  Yesterday was our first day of getting baseline observations; so, we really don’t have a full picture of stability at Turnagain Pass yet.  The uncertainty level is still a little fuzzy.  Even though almost everything is hinting toward LOW danger, there have still been some unusual surprises in recent avalanche reduction work.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Anytime there is anything unusual in the snowpack you should be cautious, and there have been some unusual avalanches since Tuesday. Keep your terrain moderate today and save the big lines for another day.  There are still some land mines out there, especially on big steep terrain.       &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Glide cracks are secondary concern today since this new load of snow is still actively settling and moving.  A full depth release avalanched a couple days before Monday’s storm in Girdwood Valley (see photo gallery).  Glide cracks are like cornices in that they are wild cards that are very difficult to predict.     &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER FORECAST&lt;/b&gt; (National Weather Service)&lt;br /&gt;
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-&lt;br /&gt;
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS&lt;br /&gt;
500 AM AKST THU MAR 11 2010&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
...STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR WHITTIER...&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WEST WIND 30&lt;br /&gt;
TO 45 MPH NEAR WHITTIER. NORTH WIND 25 TO 35 MPH NEAR SEWARD.&lt;br /&gt;
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ELSEWHERE.&lt;br /&gt;
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS ZERO&lt;br /&gt;
TO 15 ABOVE. WEST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH NEAR WHITTIER. NORTH WIND 15 TO&lt;br /&gt;
25 NEAR SEWARD. NORTHWEST WIND TO 10 MPH ELSEWHERE.&lt;br /&gt;
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE&lt;br /&gt;
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH. NEAR SEWARD...NORTH&lt;br /&gt;
WIND 10 MPH. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Temperature     /    Precipitation    &lt;br /&gt;
SEWARD       26      7     29  /   0     30     30 &lt;br /&gt;
GIRDWOOD     21     13     30  /   0     30     30 &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;Short Term Weather Model Forecasts (NAM, WRF, GFS) for the Kenai Mountains near Turnagain Pass&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
Sea-level: temps are forecasted between 13-21 and between 0.0-0.1” of water forecasted &lt;br /&gt;
3000’: temps are forecasted in the range of (negative 4) to 5 degrees F with winds 10-15 mph&lt;br /&gt;
6000’: temps are forecasted in the range of (negative 4) to 5 degrees F with winds 15-20 mph&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER STATION SUMMARY&lt;/b&gt; for last 24 hours at TURNAGAIN PASS&lt;br /&gt;
3800’-Sunburst Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: -6 (2 degrees colder than yesterday)&lt;br /&gt;
Winds: In last 24 hours winds have been calm to light averaging 0-10mph with moderate max gust of 17mph&lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
2600’-Seattle Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Winds:  In last 24 hours winds have been calm to light averaging 0-6mph with an light max gust of 12mph &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
1800’-Center Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: not working&lt;br /&gt;
Precip: not working&lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
Thanks for checking today’s avalanche advisory. The next one will be posted tomorrow Friday March 12, 2010.&lt;br /&gt;
</description>
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        <dc:format>text/html</dc:format>
        <dc:date>2010-03-10T17:27:00+01:00</dc:date>
        <dc:source>http://www.cnfaic.org</dc:source>
        <dc:creator>Matt Murphy</dc:creator>
        <title>Wednesday, March 10th 2010    Current Advisory (Turnagain Area)</title>
        <link>http://www.cnfaic.org/advisories/current.php?id=256</link>
        <description>Danger Rating: Considerable&lt;br&gt;Trend: Steady Danger&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Good morning backcountry travelers this is Matt Murphy with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday March 10th, 2010 at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;ANNOUNCEMENTS&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Placer River and Skookum will open to snowmachines today 3/10/2010.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER ROUNDUP&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
-The winds have continued to back off since the big storm two days ago.  Current average winds speeds are light this morning between 3mph-9mph with light gusts up to 16mph.&lt;br /&gt;
-In the last 24 hours (5am-5am), the snotel sites recorded: 0.1 inch of water and 5 inches of snow settlement at Grandview, and 0.0 inches of water and 2 inches snow settlement at Summit Creek, and .3 inches of water and 7 inches of snow settlement in Girdwood Valley.&lt;br /&gt;
-The current radar shows some broken precip over Prince William Sound heading toward Cordova, but the Kenai radar is mostly clear.&lt;br /&gt;
-Temps have cooled off drastically at all wx stations this morning by 11-18 degrees since yesterday.  Current temps are 7 degrees F at sea-level and negative 4 degrees F at 3800’.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;AVALANCHE DISCUSSION&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Today’s avalanche danger will remain at CONSIDERABLE due to active snow settlement and not enough time since the last major storm, CONSIDERABLE is defined as DANGEROUS avalanche conditions.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
We have had a rapid change in temperature in the past 24 hours, and the weather stations are indicating that the snowpack is shrinking or settling fairly quickly.  This is common with light density snow following a storm, but it shows that the snowpack is still actively moving and adjusting.  Our snowpack still needs some more time before the uncertainty level about avalanches can be reduced.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
With that being said, there is some uncertainty in the current snowpack.  There were some large natural and artillery triggered avalanches yesterday morning, and we were unable to go to drive south of Girdwood to get any observations from our core advisory area of Turnagain Pass.  Except for the weather stations, we have NO DATA from Turnagain Pass for this morning’s report.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Terrain steeper than 35 degrees could potentially be dangerous today.  Although the weather has backed off, natural avalanches are still possible today, however, human triggered avalanches are the main danger today.  The danger rating of CONSIDERABLE is the most dangerous rating for the human factor.  When the avalanche danger is high or extreme, most people do not travel in the mountains.  Now that the weather has backed off, this is the time when people start to venture out into the mountains.  This is when people’s goals and objectives intersect with unstable snow.  Most avalanche fatalities occur when the danger scale reads CONSIDERABLE, just like today.  Simply waiting another day or two for the snowpack to adjust could mean the difference between life and death.  Don’t get lured into the “I love big dumps” syndrome.  Don’t put yourself on steep terrain today. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Secondary avalanche concerns today are glide cracks and cornices.  A full depth glide crack release was observed the day before the most recent storm (see photo gallery).  Its difficult to say if the new load or the rapid change in temperature will effect these crevasse like features because glide cracks are very difficult to predict.  Additionally, its always best to avoid cornices immediatley following a major wind and snow event.        &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER FORECAST&lt;/b&gt; (National Weather Service)&lt;br /&gt;
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-&lt;br /&gt;
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS&lt;br /&gt;
500 AM AKST WED MAR 10 2010&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
...STRONG WIND THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING NEAR&lt;br /&gt;
WHITTIER...&lt;br /&gt;
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF MOOSE&lt;br /&gt;
PASS. PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS IN THE TEENS. VARIABLE WIND 10&lt;br /&gt;
MPH EXCEPT NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH NEAR SEWARD. &lt;br /&gt;
.TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.&lt;br /&gt;
LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT WEST&lt;br /&gt;
20 TO 35 MPH NEAR WHITTIER. &lt;br /&gt;
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE TEENS. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO &lt;br /&gt;
25 MPH EXCEPT WEST 30 TO 45 MPH NEAR WHITTIER. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Temperature     /    Precipitation    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
SEWARD       17      2     19  /   0      0      0 &lt;br /&gt;
GIRDWOOD     14      1     17  /  50     20      0 &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;Short Term Weather Model Forecasts (NAM, WRF, GFS) for the Kenai Mountains near Turnagain Pass&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
Sea-level: temps are forecasted between 1-14 and between 0.0-0.1” of water forecasted &lt;br /&gt;
3000’: temps are forecasted in the range of 5 to 14 degrees F with winds 5 mph&lt;br /&gt;
6000’: temps are forecasted in the range of (minus 4) to 5 degrees F with winds 5-10 mph&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER STATION SUMMARY&lt;/b&gt; for last 24 hours at TURNAGAIN PASS&lt;br /&gt;
3800’-Sunburst Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: -4 (18 degrees colder than yesterday)&lt;br /&gt;
Winds: In last 24 hours winds have been light to strong averaging 2-36mph with extreme gusts up to 56mph&lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
2600’-Seattle Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Winds:  In last 24 hours winds have been calm to moderate averaging 0-24mph with an extreme gust of 39mph &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
1800’-Center Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: not working&lt;br /&gt;
Precip: not working&lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
Thanks for checking today’s avalanche advisory. The next one will be posted tomorrow Thursday March 11, 2010.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
</description>
    </item>
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        <dc:format>text/html</dc:format>
        <dc:date>2010-03-09T17:18:00+01:00</dc:date>
        <dc:source>http://www.cnfaic.org</dc:source>
        <dc:creator>Matt Murphy</dc:creator>
        <title>Tuesday, March 9th 2010    Current Advisory (Turnagain Area)</title>
        <link>http://www.cnfaic.org/advisories/current.php?id=255</link>
        <description>Danger Rating: Considerable&lt;br&gt;Trend: Decreasing Danger&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Good morning backcountry travelers this is Matt Murphy with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Tuesday March 9th, 2010 at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER ROUNDUP&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
-The winds have backed off at all ridge top weather stations since the height of the storm yesterday.  Average winds speeds are light this morning between 3mph-14mph with strong gusts up to 26mph.&lt;br /&gt;
-In the last 24 hours (5am-5am), the snotel sites recorded: 2.3 inches of water and 22 inches of new snow at Grandview, and 0.7 inches of water and 11 inches snow at Summit Creek, Turnagain Pass is not working right now, but I measured 22” of new snow in the motorized parking lot yesterday at 3pm.&lt;br /&gt;
-The current radar shows some precip over Prince William Sound heading toward Cordova, but the Kenai radar shows light to moderate precip directly over Turnagain Pass and Girdwood heading toward Anchorage.&lt;br /&gt;
-Temps have cooled off at all wx stations this morning by 4-6 degrees since the height of the storm yesterday.  Current temps are 24 degrees F at sea-level and 14 degrees F at 3800’.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;AVALANCHE DISCUSSION&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Today’s avalanche danger will decrease to CONSIDERABLE due to a less intense weather forecast for the next 24 hours, but DANGEROUS avalanche conditions still exist.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
According to the weather stations, the majority of the precip from this storm had already hit our area by yesterday afternoon to early evening.  Looking out the window, I’m seeing about a foot of new snow on my truck in Girdwood this morning.  The Kenai Mountain snotel sites, however, look like they are recording less precip than Girdwood with only 0.1-0.6 inches of water since yesterday at 3pm at Summit and Grandview compared to 1.2 inches in Girdwood in that same time frame.  It’s too bad that the Turnagain Pass snotel site is not working today, but I checked all the parking lot snow stakes yesterday at 3pm and found 22” of new snow on the northern end of Turnagain Pass and 15” new snow at the southern end of the Pass.  I’m sure the storm total exceeds 2 feet of new snow at Turnagain Pass this morning.  Winds have backed off at all ridge top weather stations this morning, and temps are cooling off as well. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The structure of the snowpack right now is a big glob of storm snow and wind slabs without persistent buried weak layers.  There will be weak interfaces within the old snow/new snow and within the new storm snow that could be reactive to human triggers today and create dangerous avalanches.  This was a &lt;b&gt;BIG&lt;/b&gt; storm that &lt;b&gt;RAPIDLY&lt;/b&gt; loaded the snowpack with lots of new weight.  These are two big red flags waving in your face.  You have to give the snowpack time to adjust after a storm like this.  Remember that 90% of all avalanches occur during storms and within 24 hours following storms.  We are still in that time frame, do not take your chances on steep slopes today.  &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Terrain steeper than 35 degrees will be dangerous today.  Although the weather has backed off, natural avalanches are still possible today, however, human triggered avalanches are the main danger today.  The danger rating of CONSIDERABLE is the most dangerous rating for the human factor.  When the avalanche danger is high or extreme, most people do not travel in the mountains.  Now that the weather has backed off, this is the time when people start to venture out into the mountains.  This is when people’s goals and objectives intersect with unstable snow.  Most avalanche fatalities occur when the danger scale reads CONSIDERABLE, just like today.  Simply waiting a day or two for the snowpack to adjust could mean the difference between life and death.  Don’t get lured into the “I love big dumps” syndrome.  Don't put yourself on steep terrain today.         &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER FORECAST&lt;/b&gt; (National Weather Service)&lt;br /&gt;
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-&lt;br /&gt;
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS&lt;br /&gt;
500 AM AKST TUE MAR 9 2010&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 4 INCHES...HIGHEST&lt;br /&gt;
AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOOSE PASS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.&lt;br /&gt;
VARIABLE WIND 15 MPH. NEAR WHITTIER...WEST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING&lt;br /&gt;
TO THE EAST 15 TO 20 MPH BY NOON. &lt;br /&gt;
.TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES EXCEPT 2 TO&lt;br /&gt;
4 INCHES NORTH OF MOOSE PASS. LOWS 5 TO 20 ABOVE. VARIABLE WIND 15&lt;br /&gt;
MPH. NEAR SEWARD...NORTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. &lt;br /&gt;
.WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES.&lt;br /&gt;
HIGHS 15 TO 20. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH EXCEPT NORTH AND WEST 20 TO 35&lt;br /&gt;
MPH NEAR SEWARD AND WHITTIER. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Temperature     /    Precipitation    &lt;br /&gt;
SEWARD       28      9     19  / 100     70     20 &lt;br /&gt;
GIRDWOOD     26     10     17  / 100    100     60 &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;Short Term Weather Model Forecasts (NAM, WRF, GFS) for the Kenai Mountains near Turnagain Pass&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
Sea-level: temps are forecasted between 10-26 and between 0.25” of water forecasted &lt;br /&gt;
3000’: temps are forecasted in the range of 5-14 degrees F with winds 10-15 mph&lt;br /&gt;
6000’: temps are forecasted in the range of -4-5 degrees F with winds 10-30 mph&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER STATION SUMMARY&lt;/b&gt; for last 24 hours at TURNAGAIN PASS&lt;br /&gt;
3800’-Sunburst Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: 14 (2 degrees warmer than yesterday; although cooling off since last night)&lt;br /&gt;
Winds: In last 24 hours winds have been light to extreme averaging 3-63mph with extreme gusts up to 94mph&lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
2600’-Seattle Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Winds:  In last 24 hours winds have been calm to strong averaging 0-36mph with an extreme gust of 58mph &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
1800’-Center Ridge Wx Station&lt;br /&gt;
Current Temp: not working&lt;br /&gt;
Precip: not working&lt;br /&gt;
 &lt;br /&gt;
Thanks for checking today’s avalanche advisory. The next one will be posted tomorrow Wednesday March 10, 2010.&lt;br /&gt;
</description>
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        <dc:date>2010-03-08T16:59:00+01:00</dc:date>
        <dc:source>http://www.cnfaic.org</dc:source>
        <dc:creator>Lisa Portune</dc:creator>
        <title>Monday, March 8th 2010    Current Advisory (Turnagain Area)</title>
        <link>http://www.cnfaic.org/advisories/current.php?id=254</link>
        <description>Danger Rating: High&lt;br&gt;Trend: Increasing Danger&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Good morning backcountry travelers this is Lisa Portune with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Monday, March 8th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER ROUNDUP&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
After a beautiful bluebird day yesterday, another major storm moved onshore early this morning.  Hold onto your hats as this storm is shaping up to be like last Friday’s storm.  The NWS has issued a blizzard warning in effect until 6pm tonight.  It started snowing around 3am this morning, so only a couple inches of snow have fallen so far.  Ridgetop winds started to pick up around midnight last night and are currently averaging 40-50mph out of the east gusting to 63mph.  Temperatures have increased by about 10 degrees in the last 6 hours and currently range from 30F at sea level to 12F at 3800 feet.  It is snowing sideways in Girdwood right now, and the winds are plastering the snow to my window as I write.  We could get up to 2 feet of snow at the higher elevations today with an additional 6-14 inches this evening.  Gale to storm force easterly winds averaging 40-65mph and hurricane force gusts over 75mph are forecasted for today.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;AVALANCHE DISCUSSION&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
The avalanche danger will increase to &lt;b&gt;HIGH&lt;/b&gt; today as this storm progresses.  Human-triggered avalanches will be very likely on steep windloaded slopes with natural avalanches likely on actively loading slopes greater than 35 degrees.  Storm force easterly winds and up to 2 feet of snow today at the higher elevations equals dangerous avalanche conditions.  Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The cold light density snow that is falling right now at the higher elevations will be the foundation for the rest of today’s snowfall, so I would expect the initial bonding with the old snow surface to be poor.  The old snow surface varies from powder to soft windslab to supportable hardslab to windhammered boilerplate.  There are probably thin suncrusts on southerly aspects as well from yesterday’s intense sunshine.  In other words, there are many areas with slick bed surfaces for today’s avalanches.  As temperatures warm up and the wind continues to form fresh windslabs, an increasingly top-heavy slab will form on top of the lighter density snow creating unstable conditions.  Visibly drifting snow and shooting cracks are the most obvious clues to windslab formation.&lt;br /&gt;
   &lt;br /&gt;
A glide crack in the upper Girdwood Valley around 2300 feet avalanched yesterday morning when temperatures bottomed out to the low single digits.  We also received a report of some wet loose snow sluffs triggered by skiers yesterday on the steep southerly slopes of Goat Mountain in the upper Girdwood Valley.  Despite the single digit temperatures, the March sun was strong enough to melt the snow surface.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Matt will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning at 7am.  Thanks and have a great day.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;The NWS weather forecast for:&lt;br /&gt;
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-&lt;br /&gt;
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
500 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING&lt;br /&gt;
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
.TODAY...SNOW. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE&lt;br /&gt;
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM. SNOW&lt;br /&gt;
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 12&lt;br /&gt;
INCHES...HEAVIEST NORTH OF MOOSE PASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH&lt;br /&gt;
TO EAST WIND 15 TO 30 EXCEPT EAST 50 TO 65 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY&lt;br /&gt;
AND TURNAGAIN ARM. &lt;br /&gt;
.TONIGHT...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT SEA LEVEL IN THE&lt;br /&gt;
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO&lt;br /&gt;
LOWER 30S. NORTH AND EAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AND EAST&lt;br /&gt;
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...EAST WIND&lt;br /&gt;
30 TO 45 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.&lt;br /&gt;
.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS&lt;br /&gt;
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
               TEMPERATURE     /    PRECIPITATION    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
SEWARD       33     30     30  / 100    100     80 &lt;br /&gt;
GIRDWOOD     31     27     29  /  90     90     80 &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;b&gt;WEATHER STATION SUMMARY for Turnagain Pass:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;i&gt;-3800’ Sunburst Wx Station-&lt;/i&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
recorded light winds yesterday averaging 5-15mph out of the west shifting to the south.  The current temp is 12F (14 degrees warmer than yesterday) with gale force winds averaging 40-50mph out of the east gusting to 63mph.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;i&gt;-2600’ Seattle Ridge Wx Station-&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
is currently recording moderate southeasterly winds averaging 20mph with gusts to 34mph.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;i&gt;-1800’ Center Ridge Wx Station-&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
recorded no new snow in the last 24 hours.  The current temp is 19F (13 degrees warmer than yesterday) with a total snowpack depth of 122 inches (3 inches of settlement since yesterday).  </description>
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