Sunday, March 9th 2014 6:23 am by Wendy Wagner
ARCHIVED ADVISORY - All advisories expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
The avalanche danger is generally LOW again today. Triggering an avalanche will be unlikely in the majority of the forecast area. The exceptions are in steep extreme terrain at the upper elevation zones >4,000' where a remote possibility exists of triggering an old slab or a cornice fall.
**Avalanche danger will rise rapidly in conjunction with heavy snowfall and strong winds beginning early tomorrow morning and possibly through mid-week. The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch beginning Monday morning.
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- Please consider participation in this survey at http://edu.surveygizmo.com/s3/1523144/Avy. Your feedback will help assist in avalanche forecasting and avalanche education while contributing to ongoing research that benefits the backcountry community. Participants will be entered into a prize drawing and have access to final results!
- The University of Montana is collecting data from around the world and needs your help. Participation is simple, and anyone with a GPS or smartphone can contribute. Go to www.montana.edu/snowscience/tracks for more information on this project.
One more day of dust on crust conditions is on tap for the Pass and surrounding regions. Though we have a mostly stable snowpack and it has been over a week since we have seen/heard of any avalanche activity, there are a few things to keep in mind if you are venturing to the steep upper elevations. These are:
- - Cornices. Natural or human triggered cornice failures are possible. We have seen little evidence of these falling recently - but it is still something to be mindful of.
- - Slab avalanches and loose snow sluffs. Very steep slopes at elevations over 4,000' harboring dry snow are suspect for finding a piece of unstable snow. Good travel practices, i.e. only exposing one person at a time, are good ways to manage travel in these 'extreme' areas.
A bit on the snowpack:
The snowpack to date is composed of mostly crusts and weak snow near the surface. This, for the time being, is not a problem since there is no 'slab' portion to our pack. However, all bets will be off starting tomorrow as a much needed storm is on the doorstep. As we anticipate a new load, knowing the surface conditions is key. Currently, we are set up with a couple inches of weak faceted snow and surface hoar on top of a crust 1-4" thick. This weak snow over a crust combo is a perfect weak layer and bed surface. Add a 'slab' of new snow on top of that tomorrow and it's pretty easy to see that avalanche activity will be on the rise. It will be good to rein in the powder fever on the steeps this week.
During the past 23-hours (one hour less due to daylight savings time...) we have seen mostly clear skies and light winds from the west. Temperatures have averaged in the teens F at most locations. Overnight, temperatures have dropped to the low teens and valley bottoms have dropped even more to ~0F as a temperature inversion has set in.
Today will be the calm before the storm. Skies should remain mostly clear with high clouds streaming in for the afternoon. Temperatures will climb out of the single digits to near 30F at 1,000' and up to 20F on the ridgetops. Winds will remain in the 5-10mph range and slowly shift from west to south to east through the day.
It looks like - after months of waiting - a series of 'classic Chugach storms' is on the way. Snowfall is expected to begin late tonight and pick up Monday. Models are showing around 1.5" of water equivalent for late tonight through tomorrow night (that is 14-18" of snow!). Add to that an additional 1" of water (10-14" of snow) for Tuesday. Snow should make it to sea level during this period but may rise to a rain/snow mix for Tuesday. These numbers are for Turnagain Pass and favored areas will likely see more and vice versa. Stay tuned.
With fear of reading too much into the crystal ball....models are showing another pulse of precip for Thursday/Friday and another for Saturday/Sunday.
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).
Riding status is not associated with avalanche danger. An area will be open to motorized use in accordance to the Forest Management Plan when snow coverage is adequate to protect underlying vegetation. Backcountry hazards including avalanche hazard are always present regardless of the open status of motorized use areas.
(Updated: May 06, 2018 )
|AREA||STATUS||WEATHER AND RIDING CONDITIONS|
|Johnson Pass:||Closed||Closed as of April 20th|
|Placer River:||Closed||Closed as of April 17th|
|Skookum Drainage:||Closed||Closed as of April 1st.|
|Turnagain Pass:||Closed||Closed as of May 7th. Happy summer, see ya when the snow flies!|
|Twentymile:||Closed||Closed as of April 13th|
|Carter Lake:||Closed||Closed as of 4/27|
|Lost Lake Trail:||Closed||Closed as of April 13th|
|Primrose Trail:||Closed||Closed as of April 13th|
|Resurrection Pass Trail:||Closed||Closed as of April 20th|
|Snug Harbor:||Closed||Closed as of 4/27|
|South Fork Snow River Corridor:||Closed||Closed as of April 13th|
|Summit Lake:||Closed||Closed as of April 20th|
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