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Avalanche Advisory

Turnagain Area Avalanche Advisory
Forecaster:   Graham Predeger  
Tuesday, December 23rd 2014
Created: Dec 23rd 6:05 am
2 Moderate Alpine / Above 2,500' Travel Advice: Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
1 Low Treeline / 1,000'-2,500' Travel Advice: Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
0 NO RATING Below Treeline / Below 1,000'
 Show the Complete North American Avalanche Danger Scale
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The Bottom Line

There is a MODERATE avalanche danger today in alpine areas above 2,500’.  The odds of triggering an avalanche are on the decline as we are now a week out from the end of our last storm.  Given the persistent nature of the weak layer/ slab combo (1 – 3' slab) that we know exists in much of the advisory area, this is a “scary” MODERATE situation and if an avalanche initiates it has the potential to propagate far and wide across entire slopes.  Keep this last point in mind if travelling in the backcountry today and exercise safe travel protocol both on the skin up and the ski down.

Below 2,500’ the danger is LOW for initiating an avalanche though anything triggered from higher elevations does have the potential to run into this elevation band.  Again, safe travel protocol and situational awareness with other groups will be key today.

We all need to collectively ask Santa for snow for Xmas because below 1,000’ there is unfortunately still not enough coverage to issue a danger rating.


Primary Concern

Our current problem can be described as low probability/ high consequence.  The likelihood of waking up this documented layer of buried surface hoar that we’ve been talking about the last few days is waning as time ticks by and temperatures drop. However if one were to find the right trigger point (shallow areas in the slab or slope convexities are the likely areas) on a slope the resulting avalanche could be quite large.  We have a hard time classifying this type of problem using the North American Avalanche Danger Scale because it doesn’t totally capture this low likelihood/ high consequence scenario with any one color. 

Colors aside, it’ll be important today to travel through the backcountry with heightened awareness.  Ensure good spacing between parties and individuals when ascending steep terrain; one person at a time on the slope; plan out and communicate escape routes and safety zones; ensure safe zones are safe.  Keep in mind that with this avalanche problem, potential exists for a slope to avalanche wall-to-wall or even connect slopes through shallow bands of rock.

 As mentioned in the bottom line, this is a “scary” MODERATE avalanche problem and though our snowpack is gaining strength, surface hoar once buried accounts for more avalanche accidents than any other weak layer.


Mountain Weather

Calm weather dominated the eastern Turnagain arm zone yesterday.  After a light morning drizzle deposited a very thin crust on the snow surface up to about 1,500’ the skies began to break and visibility improve.  Ridgetop winds were in the single digits from the east with temperatures hovering around 32 degrees at 1,000’.

We may continue to see a few snow showers through the day as instability in our region weakens with an advancing ridge moving in from the west.  This will shift winds to a northwesterly direction where we may see gusts into the mid-teens or low 20’s mph today.  Temperatures at 1,000’ will linger right around the freezing mark.  We may also see fog development today and into tomorrow-in low-lying areas around the highway.

Looking out toward Xmas it appears that south-central AK will be influenced by westerly flow as a dominant low-pressure system in the western Aleutians tracks east toward the mainland.  Expect temperatures to slowly decline and periods of light snow thru the holiday.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am - 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880') 29   1  .1  28
Summit Lake (1400') 24   0  4
Alyeska Mid (1700')  32  1  .1  21

 

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am - 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812') 24  E  6  14
Seattle Ridge(2400')  26 N/A  N/A  N/A 

This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

Winter snowmachine use open/closed status and riding conditions updates

Riding status is not associated with avalanche danger. An area will be open to motorized use in accordance to the Forest Management Plan when snow coverage is adequate to protect underlying vegetation. Backcountry hazards including avalanche hazard are always present regardless of the open status of motorized use areas.

(Updated: Apr 28, 2017 )

AREA STATUS WEATHER AND RIDING CONDITIONS
Glacier District
Johnson Pass: Closed
Placer River: Closed
Skookum Drainage: ClosedSKOOKUM DRAINAGE CLOSED TO MOTORIZED USE ON APRIL 1 annually as per the Chugach National Forest Plan document.
Turnagain Pass: OpenOpen thru May 14th.
Twentymile: Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake: OpenClosed May 1.
Lost Lake Trail: OpenClosed May 1.
Primrose Trail: OpenClosed May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail: ClosedClosed for 2016/17 winter season. This is a non-motorized season. This alternates every other year and will open again during the 2017/18 winter.
Snug Harbor: OpenClosed May 1.
South Fork Snow River Corridor: OpenClosed May 1.
Summit Lake: OpenClosed May 1.

Subscribe to the Turnagain Area Avalanche Advisory:

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory provided by the Chugach National Forest, in partnership with Friends of the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center.


USFS SNOW AND AVALANCHE HOTLINE (907) 754-2369
If you have comments or questions regarding CNFAIC operations or winter recreation management, please email staff@chugachavalanche.org
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